July 2100 Climate Model Projections (RCP 8.5) Summary

Climate Model Projection for July 2100 (RCP 8.5)

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Global Temperature Projections

  • Temperature Scale:

    • The color scale at the bottom of the image ranges from -6°C to 42°C.
    • Blue colors represent cooler temperatures, while red colors represent hotter temperatures.
    • The scale helps to visually understand temperature variations across different regions in the projection.
  • Key Temperature Ranges:

    | Color     | Temperature Range (°C) |
    |-----------|------------------------|
    | Dark Blue | -6                     |
    | Light Blue| 0                      |
    | Green     | 6                      |
    | Yellow    | 12                     |
    | Light Orange | 18                 |
    | Orange    | 24                     |
    | Red       | 30                     |
    | Dark Red  | 36                     |
    | Deep Red  | 42                     |
    

Notable Regional Temperature Changes

  • High-Latitude Regions (e.g., Arctic, Northern Russia, Northern Canada) :

    • These regions are projected to experience lower temperatures (cooler colors) due to their higher latitude positions.
    • Temperature ranges here are generally between 0°C to 12°C.
  • Equatorial Regions (e.g., Amazon Basin, Central Africa) :

    • These areas display some of the highest temperature projections, often ranging from 30°C to 42°C.
    • The intense red and deep red colors suggest extreme heat.
  • Mid-Latitude Regions (e.g., United States, Southern Europe, China) :

    • These regions show significant warming, with temperatures likely between 18°C and 36°C.
    • Orange to red shades dominate, indicating considerable heat.

Climate Scenario Context

  • RCP 8.5:
    • The image projection is based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, which represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
    • Under this scenario, it is assumed that no significant efforts are made to reduce emissions, leading to rapid warming.
    • RCP 8.5 is often referred to as a "business as usual" scenario, highlighting the potential impacts without climate change mitigation.

Future Implications

  • Human and Ecological Impacts:
    • Extremely high temperatures in regions like the tropics and mid-latitudes can lead to severe heatwaves, affecting human health, agriculture, and biodiversity.
    • Regions that experience substantial cooling might face different challenges, such as altered weather patterns and ecosystem shifts.

Summary

  • The image provides a visual projection of global temperatures for July 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
  • It emphasizes the variability in temperature changes across different regions based on the emission scenario.
  • Understanding such projections is crucial for planning and implementing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies globally.

Reference:

sos.noaa.gov
Climate Model: Temperature Change (RCP 8.5) - 2006 - 2100
www.ipcc.ch
[PDF] Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term ...
science2017.globalchange.gov
[PDF] Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections