July 2100 Climate Model Projections (RCP 8.5) Summary
Climate Model Projection for July 2100 (RCP 8.5)
Global Temperature Projections
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Temperature Scale:
- The color scale at the bottom of the image ranges from -6°C to 42°C.
- Blue colors represent cooler temperatures, while red colors represent hotter temperatures.
- The scale helps to visually understand temperature variations across different regions in the projection.
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Key Temperature Ranges:
| Color | Temperature Range (°C) | |-----------|------------------------| | Dark Blue | -6 | | Light Blue| 0 | | Green | 6 | | Yellow | 12 | | Light Orange | 18 | | Orange | 24 | | Red | 30 | | Dark Red | 36 | | Deep Red | 42 |
Notable Regional Temperature Changes
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High-Latitude Regions (e.g., Arctic, Northern Russia, Northern Canada):
- These regions are projected to experience lower temperatures (cooler colors) due to their higher latitude positions.
- Temperature ranges here are generally between 0°C to 12°C.
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Equatorial Regions (e.g., Amazon Basin, Central Africa):
- These areas display some of the highest temperature projections, often ranging from 30°C to 42°C.
- The intense red and deep red colors suggest extreme heat.
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Mid-Latitude Regions (e.g., United States, Southern Europe, China):
- These regions show significant warming, with temperatures likely between 18°C and 36°C.
- Orange to red shades dominate, indicating considerable heat.
Climate Scenario Context
- RCP 8.5:
- The image projection is based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5, which represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
- Under this scenario, it is assumed that no significant efforts are made to reduce emissions, leading to rapid warming.
- RCP 8.5 is often referred to as a "business as usual" scenario, highlighting the potential impacts without climate change mitigation.
Future Implications
- Human and Ecological Impacts:
- Extremely high temperatures in regions like the tropics and mid-latitudes can lead to severe heatwaves, affecting human health, agriculture, and biodiversity.
- Regions that experience substantial cooling might face different challenges, such as altered weather patterns and ecosystem shifts.
Summary
- The image provides a visual projection of global temperatures for July 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario.
- It emphasizes the variability in temperature changes across different regions based on the emission scenario.
- Understanding such projections is crucial for planning and implementing climate adaptation and mitigation strategies globally.
Reference:
sos.noaa.gov
Climate Model: Temperature Change (RCP 8.5) - 2006 - 2100
www.ipcc.ch
[PDF] Future Global Climate: Scenario-based Projections and Near-term ...
science2017.globalchange.gov
[PDF] Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections