New Notebook

Subfields of Political Science

• US Government

  • Focuses on the structure, functions, and processes of the U.S. government, including institutions like the presidency, Congress, and the judiciary.
  • Important for understanding the political dynamics within the United States and how laws are created and implemented.

• Comparative Politics

  • Involves studying and comparing political systems from different countries to understand their similarities, differences, and outcomes.
  • This can provide insights into the effectiveness of various governance models and political institutions around the world.

• International Relations

  • Examines the relationships between countries, including diplomacy, conflict, trade, and international organizations like the UN.
  • Critical for understanding global issues and how nations interact in a complex, interconnected world.

• Political Economy

  • Explores the relationship between politics and economics, analyzing how political institutions impact economic policies and outcomes.
  • Useful for understanding how economic theory and practices influence governance and vice versa.

• Political Theory

  • Delves into the ideas, principles, and philosophies that underpin political systems and thought, including key political philosophies from classical thinkers to modern theorists.
  • Aims to address questions about justice, authority, rights, and the role of government in society.

• Public Policy

  • Studies the processes of policy-making, implementation, and evaluation in government, focusing on various sectors like healthcare, education, and the environment.
  • Essential for understanding how laws and regulations affect everyday life and how policies can be improved to meet societal needs.

Extended readings:

polisci.ucla.edu

Subfields - UCLA Political Science

kups.ku.edu

Fields of Study - KU Political Science - The University of Kansas

www.polisci.washington.edu

What is Political Science?

The Pyramid of Knowledge

• Understanding Broad Knowledge

  • You have to know a lot about a lot
    It's important to have a diverse knowledge base. This can enhance critical thinking and problem-solving abilities, allowing for a more holistic understanding of various subjects.

• Feeling Overwhelmed

  • It can feel very overwhelming
    With the vast amount of information available, it's natural to feel daunted. Breaking down knowledge into manageable pieces can help mitigate this feeling.

• Lifelong Learning

  • Learning is a full-time job
    Emphasizing that education does not stop after formal schooling. Continuous learning through reading and exploration is essential for personal and professional growth.

• Reading is Fundamental

  • Reading is fundamental
    Engaging with texts helps build comprehension and analytical skills. It is vital to stay informed and develop critical insights.

• Politics vs. Political

  • The distinction between discussions about politics (as a field) and political actions or events. Understanding the difference can aid in forming nuanced opinions and analyses.

• Questions Raised

  • Why The Premonition?
    Reflecting on the significance of predictive events or literature can lead to discussions on awareness and foresight in societal issues.

  • Why Dopesick?
    Investigating the impact of addiction and societal responses through literature can deepen empathy and understanding of healthcare crises.

  • Why First They Erased Our Name?
    Exploring themes of identity and historical erasure, prompting reflection on culture and memory.

• Conceptual Framework of Knowledge

  • Depth of Knowledge Representation

    Stage	Description
    Circle of human knowledge	Represents the entirety of knowledge available.
    Elementary school	Basic knowledge acquired; the smallest circle.
    High school	Increased knowledge but still limited; a larger circle compared to elementary school.
    Bachelor's degree	Specialization begins; a more defined circle of knowledge.
    Master's degree	Deepens that specialty; an even more focused circle.
    Reading research papers	Moves towards the edge of human knowledge; pushing boundaries and expanding understanding.
    Ph.D.	A significant dent in the boundary of knowledge, signifying high-level expertise.
    Continuous pursuit	Encouragement to keep pushing the boundaries to grasp the full spectrum of knowledge.

• Final Thought

  • Keep pushing
    This serves as a motivational push to continually seek knowledge and understand different perspectives, reinforcing the idea of lifelong learning.

Extended readings:

www.ontotext.com

What Is the Data, Information, Knowledge, Wisdom (DIKW) Pyramid?

www.linkedin.com

Reflections on the DIKW Pyramid - LinkedIn

quizlet.com

Sociology 2 Flashcards - Quizlet

Why Does Claytor Lake Exist?

• Construction of a Gravity Hydroelectric Dam (1939)

  • In 1939, a significant infrastructure project was completed when a gravity hydroelectric dam was constructed on the New River located in Pulaski County, Virginia.
  • Thoughts: The choice of a gravity dam signifies that the design relies on its weight to resist the water pressure, making it a robust and stable option for hydroelectric energy generation.

• Creation of Claytor Lake Reservoir

  • The construction of the dam led to the formation of the Claytor Lake reservoir.
  • Size and Capacity:
    • Area: 4,472 acres (21.67 miles behind the dam)
    • Volume: 225,000 acre-feet of water
  • Ideas: This reservoir not only provides recreational opportunities but also plays a critical role in water management, flood control, and supporting local ecosystems. The expansive surface area of Claytor Lake aids in various activities such as fishing, boating, and swimming, contributing to local tourism and recreation.

Extended readings:

en.wikipedia.org

Claytor Dam - Wikipedia

claytorhydro.com

About Us - Claytor Hydro

en.wikipedia.org

Claytor Lake - Wikipedia

RAAP

• Overview of RAAP

  • The Radford Army Ammunition Plant (RAAP) is powered by a dam, which highlights the importance of hydropower in manufacturing facilities.
  • Historically significant as it produced ordnance for World War II, showcasing its long-standing role in military logistics.

• Current Operations

  • RAAP manufactures propellants and explosives primarily used by the military, indicating its ongoing relevance to national defense.
  • Key products include:
    • TNT and Nitroglycerine: Essential explosives for various military applications.
    • Rocket Motors for Self-Propelled Munitions: BAE Systems manufactures rocket motors for munitions like the Javelin missile, which is currently used in conflict areas such as Ukraine. This indicates RAAP's involvement in modern military operations and international defense support.

• Ammunition Production

  • RAAP produces ammunition for various military assets:
    • M16 Rifle
    • A-10 Warthog Aircraft
    • M1A1 Abrams Battle Tank
    • Apache Attack Helicopter
  • This diverse production aligns with multiple branches of the military, indicating the facility's versatile manufacturing capabilities.

• Secure Computing

  • ALTES houses secure computing equipment on-site, suggesting that RAAP also plays a role in technological and data security for military applications.

• Environmental and Public Health Concerns

  • The mention of environmental and public health concerns points to the challenges and responsibilities associated with operating a facility that manufactures explosives. It raises questions about pollution, safety protocols, and the impact on surrounding communities, which is an important consideration in discussions about military-industrial complexes.

Extended readings:

earthjustice.org

[PDF] AN EXPLOSIVE PROBLEM: The Radford Arsenal's Toxic Operations

www.vpm.org

Residents link cancer-causing emissions to health problems ... - VPM

www.army.mil

Radford Army Ammunition Plant breaks ground for energetic waste ...

Broader Context of Community Displacement

• Historical Displacement for Reservoir Creation

  • Communities were present in areas designated for flooding to create reservoirs.
  • This reflects the broader trend of infrastructure development often at the expense of existing communities.

• Forcible Removal by the National Government

  • Communities were forcibly relocated to allow for various significant national projects.
  • Such actions show the prioritization of large-scale projects over individual property rights and community preservation.

• Facilitated Projects:

  • TVA Hydroelectric Projects
    • Helped establish electricity distribution in rural areas.
    • Part of a wider effort to modernize and industrialize the southeastern U.S.
  • The Manhattan Project (Oak Ridge, TN)
    • Significant for its role in World War II and nuclear development.
    • Highlighted the intertwining of local communities with national defense initiatives.
  • Shenandoah and Smokey Mountain National Parks
    • These parks showcase efforts to preserve natural beauty, albeit at the cost of displacing communities.
    • Raises questions about land use priorities, conservation, and historical legacy.

• Critical Questions:

  • Why were these specific locations targeted for removal?
    • Factors may include geography, resource availability, and strategic importance.
  • How were communities chosen for removal?
    • Likely based on economic considerations, population density, and feasibility for relocation.
  • What were the processes of removal?
    • Could involve government negotiation, coercion, or a combination of both.
  • What new communities emerged post-removal?
    • Examining the resilience and adaptation of displaced populations is crucial for understanding long-term impacts.

These notes emphasize the complexity and implications of displacing communities for national projects, inviting further discussion on ethics, history, and social justice.

What Now?

• AEP lowered the lake 3 feet

  • This decision likely aims to mitigate flood risk by reducing water inflow into the reservoir, ensuring that there is adequate capacity for incoming rainwater.

• The New River crested at 22 feet

  • The flood level being noted is significant, especially as it is described as the second highest since the 1940 Great Flood. Monitoring river crests is crucial for flood management and response efforts.

• Everything flooded

  • Flooding impacts infrastructure, homes, and ecosystems. It is essential to assess the damage and begin recovery efforts as soon as the water recedes.

• 10 acres of debris headed for the dam

  • This presents a challenge for clean-up and maintenance of the dam infrastructure. Debris can obstruct waterways, creating further hazards.

• Rebuilding

  • The rebuilding process will necessitate not only restoration of damaged structures but also a reassessment of flood management strategies to enhance resilience against future events. Community planning and emergency response preparedness are vital.

Summary

This content describes the aftermath of severe flooding in Pulaski County, focusing on the operational decisions made by AEP (American Electric Power) and the impacts of rising water levels in the New River. Emphasis is placed on the need for clean-up and rebuilding efforts post-disaster as well as the historical context of the flooding events.

Extended readings:

pcpatriot.com

AEP water level update - Patriot Publishing LLC

water.noaa.gov

New River at Allisonia - National Water Prediction Service

www.aep.com

Hydro Plant Levels & Flows - AEP.com

Background on Global Health Security Index and COVID-19 Impact

• 2019 Global Health Security Index

  • The U.S. was ranked #1 overall, indicating strong health security measures.
  • Key components of the Index include:
    • Prevention of the Emergence of Release or Pathogens: This entails proactive measures to prevent infectious diseases from becoming outbreaks.
    • Early Detection and Reporting for Epidemics: Effective systems for monitoring and reporting potential epidemic events are crucial.
    • Rapid Response and Mitigation: The U.S. was ranked #2 in rapid response capabilities, just behind the UK, highlighting the importance of quick action in health crises.
    • Robust Health System: A strong healthcare infrastructure is vital for treating sick individuals and supporting health workers.
    • National Capacity and Financing: Investments in health systems are necessary for preparedness.
    • Overall Risk Environment and Vulnerability to Biological Threats (#19) : Suggests a considerable risk factor that must be addressed systematically.

• U.S. COVID-19 Deaths by Early 2022

  • Despite being only 4% of the world's population, the U.S. accounted for 15% of global COVID-19 deaths. This statistic raises questions about the effectiveness of the healthcare system and public health policies during the pandemic context.

• Critical Questions Raised

  • What happened? : This prompts an inquiry into why there was such a discrepancy in health outcomes, despite the high ranking in the 2019 Global Health Security Index. Factors may include government response, healthcare access, public compliance with health directives, and the healthcare system's capacity to handle a pandemic.

• Michael Lewis

  • Questions posed about who he is, his background, and methods suggest he may be a significant figure related to the analysis of these issues. Further context would be needed to understand his contributions to public health or analysis surrounding pandemic responses.

Extended readings:

www.lowyinstitute.org

Why politics and pandemics don't mix | Lowy Institute

www.theguardian.com

The Plague Year: America in the Time of Covid review - The Guardian

globalhealthsciences.ucsf.edu

[PDF] The United States' Response to COVID-19: A Case Study of the First ...

Political Economy

• Intersections among

  • Markets

    • Markets serve as the platform where goods and services are exchanged. Understanding market behavior is crucial for analyzing how economic policies impact overall economic performance.

  • Governments

    • Governments play a significant role in shaping economic policy through regulation, taxation, and public spending. Their actions influence economic stability and growth.

  • Firms

    • Firms are the entities that produce goods and services. Their strategies and operations are affected by and can, in turn, affect market conditions and regulatory environments.

  • Organizations

    • Organizations, whether they are nonprofit, governmental, or corporate, impact and are impacted by economic systems. They can operate at various levels:

    Level	Description
    Subnational	Local or regional organizations that influence local economies.
    National	Entities operating at the country level, shaping national policy.
    Regional	Organizations that manage or influence economic activities across geographic regions.
    International	Global organizations that address economic issues transcending national borders, such as trade agreements.
    Global	Entities that operate at a worldwide scale, impacting global economics and cross-border relations.

These intersections highlight the complexity of political economy, where multiple factors interact continuously. Understanding these relationships can provide insights into formulating effective policies and strategies for economic development.

Extended readings:

socialsci.libretexts.org

8.6: How Politics and Markets Intersect - Social Sci LibreTexts

www.imf.org

The Political Economy of Economic Policy - IMF F&D

economics.mit.edu

[PDF] Markets versus governments | MIT Economics

Mortgages

Key Points

• Consumers almost never control who owns their mortgage

  • This highlights the lack of agency homeowners have in mortgage ownership, often affecting loan terms and conditions. Many mortgages are sold or transferred after origination, which can complicate the borrowing experience.

• Prime Mortgages

  • Good investments:
    • These mortgages are generally seen as low-risk for lenders since the borrowers are more likely to meet repayment obligations.
  • People very likely to pay:
    • Borrowers in this category usually have a strong credit history, stable incomes, and lower debt-to-income ratios.
  • Interest payments:
    • Interest from these loans contributes significantly to the lender’s revenue, making them attractive investments.
  • Housing values:
    • Increased home values benefit both the borrower (through equity) and the lender (through the increased security of the loan).
    • Example: $150k at 7$150k in profits
      • Illustrates how interest accumulates over time on loans, leading to significant profits for lenders.

• Subprime Mortgages

  • People unlikely to pay:
    • This segment consists of borrowers with poor credit ratings or unstable financial situations. High default rates are common in this category.
  • No down payment:
    • Subprime loans often do not require a down payment, making it easier for individuals with limited savings to purchase a home. However, this increases the risk for lenders.
  • "Variable rate" mortgages:
    • These loans can have fluctuating interest rates, which may initially be low but can increase dramatically over time, further stressing borrowers' finances.

• Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs)

  • A financial product that pools various types of debt (including mortgages), subdividing them into tranches with varying risk levels. They can lead to significant profits for investors but also increase systemic risks to the financial market.

• What's the short?

  • Betting against the mortgage market:
    • Investors can speculate that mortgage-backed securities will decline in value. This strategy can yield high returns but carries substantial risk, especially in a volatile housing market. This was notably evident during the 2008 financial crisis when many investors profited by betting against subprime mortgages.

Extended readings:

en.wikipedia.org

Subprime mortgage crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Government policies

en.wikipedia.org

Indirect economic effects

Perfect Storm of Bad Decisions

• Government

  • Deregulation and "homeowner expansion"
    Deregulation of financial markets allowed banks to lend more freely, contributing to the housing bubble. The government promoted homeownership through various initiatives, which increased demand for housing but also led to unsustainable borrowing practices.

• Home Buyers

  • "Flippers"
    Investors (often called "flippers") bought properties to renovate and sell quickly for profit. This practice drove up home prices and contributed to market volatility, as many flippers relied on easy credit and rising prices to succeed.

• Banks

  • Banks played a pivotal role in the financial crisis by issuing risky loans and engaging in practices that prioritized short-term profits over long-term stability. They often minimized risk assessments in the race for profit.

• Ratings Agencies

  • Agencies were responsible for evaluating the risk associated with mortgage-backed securities and other financial instruments. However, their conflict of interest led to inflated ratings, misleading investors about the true risks of their investments.

• Monetary Policy

  • Central banks' actions, particularly in keeping interest rates low for an extended period, encouraged easy borrowing and contributed to the housing bubble by making credit cheap and accessible.

• Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs)

  • CDOs are complex financial instruments created by bundling various loans together. Many were backed by subprime mortgages, which became highly risky when the housing market collapsed. Their complexity made them difficult to evaluate, leading to widespread financial losses.

• Credit Default Swaps (CDSs)

  • CDSs were essentially insurance contracts on debt instruments. During the crisis, many institutions had significant exposure to these swaps, which exacerbated the financial turmoil when defaults surged. The use of CDSs masked the actual risk in the financial system and contributed to the systemic collapse.

Extended readings:

en.wikipedia.org

Subprime mortgage crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Government policies

en.wikipedia.org

Indirect economic effects

Impacts of Bank Collapses on the Economy

• Economic Collapse Follows Bank Failures

  • The interconnectedness of banks with various sectors means that when banks collapse, the entire economy can go into a downward spiral. This underlines the importance of a stable banking system for economic health. Financial institutions serve as the backbone of economic activities, facilitating transactions and providing loans.

• Job Loss Due to Credit Reliance

  • Many jobs depend on short-term credit, which becomes nonviable when banks fail. This creates a chain reaction where job losses lead to decreased consumer spending, further exacerbating economic decline. It's critical to diversify funding sources for businesses to reduce dependence on banks.

• Cost-Cutting Measures by Businesses

  • In response to economic pressures, businesses resort to cutting costs, often leading to layoffs. This tactic is a short-term solution that can harm employee morale and productivity in the long run. Companies might consider alternative strategies, such as investing in employee training to enhance productivity instead of cutting workforce.

• Decline in Consumer Spending

  • When consumers are anxious about their financial stability, they tend to reduce spending, leading to a decrease in overall economic activity. Encouraging consumer confidence through policies can help stimulate spending and invigorate the economy.

• Statistical Data on Economic Downturn

  • GDP Drop: 4.3%
  • Stock Price Fall: Significant decline, undermining investor confidence.
  • Unemployment Rate: Peaked at 10%, reflecting a severe job loss scenario.
  • Housing and Savings Loss: Millions experienced financial hardship, resulting in increased poverty.
  • Poverty Rate: Increased to over 15%, highlighting the growing inequality during crises.

• Long-lasting Implications

  • The effects of such economic downturns can persist for years, impacting future economic growth and stability. Recovery strategies should involve both immediate relief for affected individuals and long-term economic resilience planning.

• Global Economic Ripple Effects

  • Economic downturns in one country can lead to instability in others, emphasizing the importance of a coordinated global financial response. International cooperation and shared policies can mitigate these ripple effects and foster a more stable global economy.

Extended readings:

www.jpmorgan.com

The ripple effects of the bank crisis - J.P. Morgan

www.rba.gov.au

The Global Financial Crisis | Explainer | Education | RBA

www.elibrary.imf.org

1 Issues in Recent Banking Crises in - IMF eLibrary

The Bailout

• Banks ("too big to fail")

  • The concept of banks being labeled as "too big to fail" refers to financial institutions whose failure would have severe repercussions for the economy. This notion led to government interventions to prevent bankruptcies. Critical discussions on moral hazard arise, suggesting that rescuing these banks may encourage reckless behavior in the future.

• Small businesses and social programs

  • Government bailouts also focused on supporting small businesses and expanding social programs. This was aimed at stabilizing the economy during crises and ensuring that these segments could survive turbulent economic times.

• Moral hazard?

  • Moral hazard refers to the risk that individuals or institutions may take excessive risks because they do not bear the full consequences of their actions. In the context of bailouts, there's concern that providing financial support can encourage risky behaviors, knowing that they will be rescued.

• Source of the money

  • The source of funding for bailouts raises crucial questions. The document highlights that budget deficits surged in 2009, exceeding $1 trillion. This situation necessitated raising the debt ceiling, implying the government could borrow more money to meet its obligations.

• Budget deficits in 2009

  • The deficits necessitated a review of fiscal policies and the implications of accruing more debt. Raising the debt ceiling allows for increased borrowing; however, it does not directly authorize new spending, which means future fiscal responsibility and potential austerity measures may still be required.

• Key point on debt ceiling

  • The emphasis on the statement "RAISING THE DEBT CEILING DOES NOT AUTHORIZE NEW SPENDING" clarifies that while the government can borrow more, it does not translate to immediate available funds for new initiatives. Stakeholders need to consider sustainable fiscal management in the long term.

Extended readings:

www.imf.org

Finance & Development, Dember 2009 - Too Big to Ignore

finance.business.uconn.edu

[PDF] Bank Bailouts and Moral Hazard? Evidence from Banks' Investment ...

www.investopedia.com

How Did Moral Hazard Contribute to the 2008 Financial Crisis?

The Federal Budget

• Revenues of $4.4 trillion

  • This figure represents the total income the federal government anticipates receiving from various sources, including taxes, fees, and other income. Understanding revenue is crucial, as it forms the foundation for budget planning and determines how much can be spent on federal programs.

• Outlays of $6.1 trillion

  • Outlays refer to the total amount of money the government plans to spend, which includes mandatory spending (like Social Security and Medicare) and discretionary spending (like defense and education). The difference between outlays and revenues indicates if there will be a budget deficit.

• How to cover the difference if there's a deficit?

  • When outlays exceed revenues, a deficit occurs, which means the government needs to find ways to cover this shortfall. Strategies may include borrowing money (issuing bonds), increasing taxes, or cutting spending in certain areas.

• National debt $33ish trillion

  • The national debt reflects the total amount of money the federal government owes. It accumulates over time due to deficits, and understanding its impact is vital for assessing the country's financial health. High national debt can lead to increased interest rates and decreased governmental flexibility in financial policy.

Table of Spending Categories

Category	Amount
Social Security	$1.1 Trillion
Medicare	$843 Billion
Medicaid	$646 Billion
Other Defense	Not specified
Non-defense discretionary	Not specified

• This table illustrates some major components of federal spending, highlighting the significant allocation towards social programs, which are essential for supporting various demographics of the population. Understanding these allocations helps in debates over budget priorities and fiscal policy.

Extended readings:

www.cbpp.org

Policy Basics: Where Do Our Federal Tax Dollars Go?

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Federal Spending | U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data

www.cbo.gov

Graphics | Congressional Budget Office

Brexit

• UK joins the EU in 1973

  • This marked a significant step in the UK's relationship with Europe, emphasizing economic integration and cooperative policies. Understanding the factors that led to this decision helps clarify Britain's evolving stance on EU membership over the decades.

• Referendum vote in the UK: June 23, 2016

  • Result: 51.9% to 48.1% with a turnout of 71.8%
    • The close result highlighted a deeply divided public opinion on EU membership, indicating strong regional differences within the UK regarding their relationship with Europe.

• The Country Turns to Google: June 24, 2016

  • Following the referendum, there was a spike in Google searches related to the EU, particularly queries like "What is the EU?"
    • This reflects a general public confusion and a desire for understanding after the significant decision was made. This moment marked a shift in public engagement with political and economic issues in the UK.

• David Cameron resigns: June 24, 2016

  • The Prime Minister's resignation signaled a major political upheaval in the UK and a response to the results of the referendum.
    • His leadership was closely tied to the campaign for Remaining in the EU, and his resignation opened the door for a new government approach toward Brexit.

• Theresa May triggers Article 50: March 29, 2017

  • This action officially started the two-year countdown for the UK to leave the EU, as stipulated by the Lisbon Treaty.
    • Triggering Article 50 marked the formal beginning of the negotiation process for the UK's exit, bringing practical implications to the debate that had been largely theoretical before.

Additional Thoughts

• The Brexit referendum and its aftermath remain pivotal in shaping the current political landscape in the UK and its relationship with Europe and the world at large.
• The events surrounding Brexit illustrate the complexities of national identity, sovereignty, and global interdependence in contemporary governance.

Extended readings:

www.britannica.com

Brexit | Meaning, Referendum, Date, & Consequences | Britannica

www.investopedia.com

Brexit Meaning and Impact: The Truth About the U.K. Leaving the EU

apnews.com

Timeline of events in Britain's exit from the European Union | AP News

Brexit Vote (2016) Notes

• Demographics and Refugee Resettlement

  • In 2016, the UK's population was approximately 87% white, a decrease from 92% in 2001.
    • This shift highlights the evolving demographics due to immigration and resettlement policies.
  • Notable immigrant groups include Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Chinese, "Other Asian," and African immigrants.
    • Recognizing these groups is crucial to understanding the multicultural landscape of modern Britain.
  • Around 10,000 Syrian refugees were resettled, primarily in Scotland and Ireland.
    • This influx reflects the UK's response to the humanitarian crisis resulting from the Syrian civil war.
  • Quote: "All I want is my country back. Give me my country back."
    • This sentiment encapsulates the desire for national sovereignty felt by many voters.

• Key Issues in the Brexit Debate

  • Sovereignty: A central theme, emphasizing the desire for the UK to reclaim legislative power from the EU.
  • Migration: Concerns over immigration were prominent, often linked to fears of "terrorism."
  • Over-regulation: Voters expressed frustration with what they perceived as excessive EU regulations affecting daily life.
  • Financial Contributions to the EU: Claims about inflated numbers regarding money sent to the EU were used to stir public sentiment.
    • Phrase: "Save the NHS" was a rallying cry, indicating a belief that funds could be better spent domestically.

• UKIP (The "Brexit Party")

  • At the time, UKIP had no representation in the UK House of Commons but was influential in the EU Parliament.
  • Previously the largest UK party in the EU Parliament, UKIP won 29 seats in 2019.
    • Their performance indicated strong support for Brexit among the electorate.
  • Identified as a right-wing populist party, they campaigned on anti-EU, anti-Islamic, and anti-refugee platforms.
    • Their platform also emphasized a pro-"British" identity, appealing to nationalist sentiments.
  • UKIP was part of a broader populist movement across Europe, aligning with other right-wing parties advocating for similar platforms.

Extended readings:

www.migrationpolicy.org

Brexit: The Role of Migration in the Upcoming EU Referendum

www.europenowjournal.org

The Refugee Crisis, Brexit, and the Reframing of Immigration in Britain

journals.sagepub.com

Taking back control? Investigating the role of immigration in the ...

The Common Market

• UK Access to EU Markets

  • As a member of the EU, the UK had significant access to open markets across EU member states.
  • This access facilitated trade and economic cooperation but also came with regulations imposed by EU institutions.

• Economic Impact of Leaving the EU

  • Various economic organizations warned that leaving the EU would negatively impact the UK's economy.
  • This reflects the interconnected nature of modern economies, where changes in trade relationships can have quick and severe consequences.

• Market Reactions

  • Stock market dropped 3% in the first trading session following the referendum.
    • This showcases immediate investor uncertainty and market volatility in response to political changes.

• Currency Depreciation

  • The pound dropped to its lowest rate since 1985, indicating a loss of confidence among investors.
    • A weak currency can make imports more expensive, affecting inflation and consumer prices.

• Economic Decline

  • An estimated economic decline of 2.5% of GDP, translating to 20-40 billion pounds annually.
    • This decline illustrates the potential long-term economic costs of reduced market access and investor confidence.

• Loss of Economic Growth

  • The UK missed out on £550 million of economic growth per week since the referendum.
    • Such figures highlight the immediate economic toll of businesses relocating or scaling back operations.

• Business Relocation

  • Over 269 companies moved to other EU countries post-referendum.
    • This shift indicates the impact of uncertainty on business decisions, as companies seek stability in the EU.

• Government Costs

  • Estimated costs exceeding £5 billion in government expenditures related to the transition.
    • This emphasizes the financial burden placed on the government to navigate the separation process.

• Trade Losses

  • Significant losses measured in billions due to reduced trade relationships.
    • These trade losses can lead to a decline in available jobs and economic activities in the UK.

• Settlement Payments

  • The UK agreed to pay £39 billion to the EU as part of the leave settlement.
    • This payment reflects the financial obligations tied to the exit agreement and underscores the complexity of negotiating such settlements.

Summary Table of Economic Impacts

Impact	Value
Stock Market Drop	3% in initial trading
Currency Drop	Lowest since 1985
Economic Decline	2.5% of GDP (20-40 billion pounds/year)
Missed Economic Growth	£550m per week
Companies Moved to Other EU Countries	269+
Government Costs	£5bn+
Lost Trade	Billions
Payment to EU	£39 billion

Extended readings:

www.ecb.europa.eu

The impact of Brexit on UK trade and labour markets

www.investopedia.com

Brexit Meaning and Impact: The Truth About the U.K. Leaving the EU

www.cer.org.uk

[PDF] The economic consequences of leaving the EU

Political Impacts of Brexit

• Desire for Special Settlements
  Scotland, Northern Ireland, and several large cities in England expressed a need for a "special settlement" post-Brexit. This indicates significant regional dissatisfaction and challenges to UK unity. If desires weren't met, there was a threat of secession, demonstrating how Brexit polarized regional politics.

• David Cameron's Resignation
  Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation following the Brexit referendum results. His resignation was a direct consequence of leading the campaign to remain in the EU, reflecting the political instability and leadership challenges faced within the Conservative Party at that time.

• Theresa May's Leadership
  Theresa May succeeded Cameron with a commitment to execute Brexit, asserting there would be no second referendum. This decision highlights the deep divisions within the UK regarding Brexit and May's attempts to consolidate authority amidst tremendous political pressure.

• Snap Election Call (April 18, 2017)
  May called for a snap election to strengthen her position. The rationale was to consolidate power and gain a stronger mandate for her Brexit strategy. This move suggests a tactical approach to gaining support in Parliament during an uncertain period.

  • Outcome: The election resulted in a hung parliament. This outcome meant that no single party gained a governing majority, complicating the political landscape further.
  • Personal Risk: There were significant concerns that May could lose her seat, suggesting lack of confidence in her leadership.
  • Coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) : May formed a coalition with the DUP from Northern Ireland that came at a cost of £1bn. This highlights the complexities and compromises made in UK politics post-Brexit, as smaller parties gained increased influence and negotiation power.

• Source Reference
  The provided link directs to BBC's coverage of the 2017 election results, serving as a resource for more detailed election data and analysis.

Overall, these notes encapsulate the political turmoil generated by Brexit in the UK, including intra-party conflicts, regional divisions, and the shifting power dynamics in Parliament.

Extended readings:

www.bbc.com

Theresa May - DUP government 'to continue with Brexit' - BBC News

journals.sagepub.com

Brexit and party change: The Conservatives and Labour at ...

en.wikipedia.org

Brexit - Wikipedia

Brexit Timeline and Key Events

December 2017

• May negotiates a deal including a "Northern Irish backstop"
  • This deal aimed to prevent a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, addressing one of the key issues of Brexit.

2018

• Internal conflict within Britain regarding the deal
  • Different factions within the UK government and Parliament had opposing views on how Brexit should be handled, leading to significant political turmoil.

December 2018

• The ECJ says the UK can reverse Brexit (takesies backsies)
  • The European Court of Justice ruling clarified that the UK could revoke its Article 50 notification, potentially allowing for a reversal of Brexit.

January 2019

• May's plan is defeated in Parliament (432-202)
  • The substantial defeat indicated major opposition to her proposed deal, reflecting deep divisions in the UK government and Parliament.
  • But no vote of no confidence?
    • Despite the defeat, there was no immediate call for a vote of no confidence against May.

March 2019

• May's plan is voted down in Parliament AGAIN (321-278)
  • Another significant defeat, emphasizing continued lack of consensus on the deal.
• Parliament ALSO votes down leaving without a deal (321-278)
  • This highlighted lawmakers' reluctance to exit without an agreement, raising fears about the implications of a no-deal Brexit.
• Brexit date moved from March 29 to April 12
  • Delays reflect the ongoing negotiations and struggle to agree on a deal.

April 2019

• Brexit date moved from April 12 to October 31
  • Further extensions indicated continued deadlock and the complexities of reaching an acceptable agreement.
• EU throws the ball in the British court
  • The EU has made it clear that the UK needs to make the next move, highlighting the pressure on UK lawmakers.
• UK has to participate in EU elections
  • This was a consequence of the extended timeline, leading to the necessity of electing MEPs.
  • Brexit Party wins the most seats of any UK party (29)
    • This indicated significant public support for a hard Brexit stance.

May 2019

• May announces a FOURTH vote but cancels and announces resignation
  • Reflects the failures of her administration to push through a cohesive Brexit strategy, ultimately leading to her stepping down.

July 2019

• Boris Johnson becomes PM
  • Johnson's leadership marked a new phase in the Brexit negotiations, with promises of a firmer approach to leaving the EU.

Extended readings:

commonslibrary.parliament.uk

Brexit timeline: events leading to the UK's exit from the European ...

www.womblebonddickinson.com

Brexit timeline | Womble Bond Dickinson

www.euronews.com

Brexit Timeline 2016–2020: the UK's path from referendum to EU exit

Brexit Timeline and Key Events

Brexit or Bust

• The UK is set to leave the EU on October 31st, regardless of the circumstances, emphasizing a hard stance.
  • Thoughts: This reflects a commitment to a decisive Brexit, even if it results in a no-deal scenario that could have widespread ramifications for both the UK and EU.

August 2019

• Johnson suspends Parliament from September 9 to October 14.
  • Explanation: This move raised concerns about transparency and parliamentary democracy during a critical time in the Brexit process.

September 2019

• 3rd: Parliament takes actions to prevent a no-deal Brexit; several Tory MPs voted against the government and faced expulsion.
  • Thoughts: This indicates significant dissent within the ruling party about Brexit strategy.
• 9th: The EU Withdrawal Act is established, mandating the PM to seek an extension if no deal is reached by October 19.
• 24th: UK Supreme Court rules the suspension of Parliament was illegal and null.
  • Implications: This ruling upheld the principle of parliamentary sovereignty and accountability.

October 2019

• New proposal includes an "all-island regulatory zone" but introduces complexities regarding border controls.
  • Additional Info: The mention of "ALSfa" border controls is critical given the sensitive nature of the Northern Ireland border.
• 17th: The EU agrees to the new plan.
• 19th: Parliament withholds legislative approval until the new deal is fully legislated.
• 22nd: Parliament votes to bypass the deal but Johnson removes it from the agenda.
• 28th: Brexit postponed to January 31, 2020, with general elections called for December 12.
  • Context: This extension again highlights the challenges in reaching a consensus on Brexit terms.

December 2019

• 12th: Parliamentary elections are held, and Johnson's party wins.
  • Thoughts: The election result reflects public sentiment regarding Johnson's Brexit strategy, providing him a mandate to proceed with his plans.

Summary

This timeline outlines the significant events surrounding the Brexit process from Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister. Key actions taken by Parliament and the judicial rulings emphasize the ongoing debates and complexities faced in achieving a cohesive Brexit strategy.

Best Brexit Analogy Ever

• Context of Analogy:

  • The analogy is a humorous critique of the Brexit process, where the speaker compares the complex situation to ordering fish in a restaurant known for chicken. This reflects frustration with the convoluted and prolonged nature of Brexit negotiations.

• Democratic Mandate:

  • The speaker acknowledges that there was a democratic decision for Brexit, highlighting the legitimacy of the process while expressing dissatisfaction with its execution. This points to the tension between democratic choice and practical implementation.

• Delay and Uncertainty:

  • There's a notable delay (waiting three hours) that symbolizes the lengthy process of Brexit negotiations. This emphasizes the theme of uncertainty and indecision that has characterized the situation.

• Staff Confusion:

  • The various chefs and waiting staff struggling to agree on how to prepare the fish reflects the political disarray and disagreements among leaders regarding Brexit. This illustrates the chaos and inconsistency in planning and strategy.

• Desired Attention:

  • The speaker's wish to be asked if they still want the fish expresses a desire for simple communication and clarity, which is often lacking in complicated political discussions. It suggests that the people's needs and questions should be prioritized in policymaking.

• Food Choices as Symbolism:

  • The different types of fish (battered cod, grilled salmon, jellied eels, dolphin kebabs) represent the varied opinions and options available during the Brexit discussions. This highlights the complexity of the choices being made and their implications.

• Imagery of Fire:

  • The mention of parts of the restaurant being on fire serves as a powerful metaphor for the crises that arose during the Brexit process, indicating that important issues were being neglected amid the confusion.

Extended readings:

www.reddit.com

Perfect Brexit Metaphor : r/europe - Reddit

www.accc.gov.au

[PDF] The Impact of Digital Platforms on News and Journalistic Content

media.snopes.com

[PDF] Project 2025 - Snopes

Brexit Timeline and Implications

Key Events in 2020

• January 23: UK's EU withdrawal plan becomes law
  This marks a significant legal framework for the Brexit process, ensuring that the UK's departure from the EU is formalized.

• January 29: EU Parliament approves Brexit deal
  The approval by the EU Parliament signifies the agreement between the UK and EU, leading to the UK’s official departure.

• January 31: UK officially leaves the EU
  This date is pivotal as it ends over 40 years of UK membership in the EU, impacting trade, travel, and various agreements.

• February 1: 11-month transition phase begins
  During this period, existing EU laws continue to apply, allowing time for negotiations on future relations between the UK and the EU.

• Pandemic: COVID-19 impacts
  The pandemic has introduced new challenges for the UK, affecting the economy, public health, and Brexit negotiations.

• December 31: Transition period ends, UK leaves EU
  This marks the end of the transitional phase, which raises questions about the future relationship, trade agreements, and the rights of citizens.

Continuing Questions

• Scottish Independence?
  Post-Brexit, discussions around Scotland's potential independence have intensified, reflecting differing views on EU membership among UK nations.

• Worker and Resident Rights?
  Concerns arise regarding the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU, especially concerning residency and employment.

• Bregret?
  The term "Bregret" refers to the regret expressed by some voters post-Brexit, with polling indicating fluctuating opinions on the decision to leave the EU.

  • Statista on Brexit Opinion Poll
    Surveys highlight changing public sentiments towards Brexit and its aftermath.

• Impacts on Other EU Countries with Exit Movements
  Other EU nations, like Italy and France, may face rise in calls for similar referendums on EU membership, warranting observation of political trends.

Sources

• Euronews Brexit Timeline
• BBC on UK Politics

Background of the Opioid Crisis

• Historical Availability of Opium

  • In the late 1800s and early 1900s, opium was widely available without regulations, even prescribed for infants.
  • This lack of oversight contributed to higher rates of addiction as it was easily accessible to the general public.

• Introduction of Heroin

  • In 1897, developers like Dreser and Bayer marketed heroin as a nonaddictive alternative to morphine.
  • This led to a surge in addiction rates, escalating into a significant public health crisis as more people became dependent on the substance.

• Regulatory Changes: Harrison Narcotics Act of 1914

  • The Harrison Narcotics Act of 1914 significantly restricted the sale and possession of heroin, making it illegal by 1924.
  • This shift in regulation led to a societal stigma around users, labeling them as "criminals" and "junkies," particularly amplified during the "War On Drugs."

• Current Statistics and Impact

  • More than 1,000,000 people in the U.S. have died from drug overdoses since 1999, with over 100,000 fatalities between April 2020 and April 2021 alone.
  • The opioid epidemic has incurred a staggering economic cost of $1 trillion by 2017, affecting productivity, healthcare, social services, and law enforcement.

• Questions Raised

  • What happened?
    • This part invites an exploration of the crisis' evolution and contributing factors over time, indicating a need for deeper analysis and understanding.

• Profile of Beth Macy

  • Who is Beth Macy?
    • Initial question aiming to detail her identity and contributions related to the opioid crisis.
  • What is her background?
    • This question seeks to understand her expertise, experience, and perspective in tackling the issues of addiction and public health.
  • What are her methods?
    • This prompts a discussion on her approaches to raising awareness, advocating for change, or addressing the problem effectively.

Overall, this presentation provides a timeline of the opioid crisis, highlighting historical trends and societal implications while prompting inquiries into individuals who have engaged with these issues critically, such as Beth Macy.

Extended readings:

www.amazon.com

Dopesick: Dealers, Doctors, and the Drug Company that Addicted ...

www.nytimes.com

'Dopesick' Traces the Opioid Crisis, From Beginning to Blow Up

pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Dopesick: Dealers, Doctors, and the Drug Company That Addicted ...

Where are the Chagos?

• Geographical Overview:

  • The Chagos archipelago consists of seven atolls with over 60 islands in the Indian Ocean.
  • The largest island is Diego Garcia, which is strategically significant for military purposes.

• Colonial History:

  • The islands were part of the French colony of Mauritius until 1814, when they were ceded to the UK.
  • Mauritius gained independence in 1968, after which the Chagos became known as the British Indian Ocean Territory.

• Native Population:

  • The native inhabitants, known as the Chagossians, were expelled by the UK between 1967 and 1973.
  • There are about 2000 Chagossians, but they are often described as having "no permanent population" due to forced relocations.
  • The Chagossians are descendants of enslaved individuals who were brought to work on coconut plantations.

• Displacement and Consequences:

  • Initially, those who left the islands were unable to return.
  • Those who remained faced difficulties in obtaining supplies.
  • Many were forcibly relocated to Mauritius and the Seychelles.
  • Since 1971, only Diego Garcia has been inhabited and is occupied exclusively by UK and US military personnel, including contractors and allies.
  • The native population is still banned from returning to their ancestral lands.

The situation highlights issues of colonialism, displacement, and the ongoing struggles for the rights of indigenous populations. The Chagos Islanders have sought recognition and restitution for their lost homeland and rights across international forums.

Extended readings:

www.hrw.org

“That's When the Nightmare Started”: UK and US Forced ...

oxfordre.com

Chagos Islands and Indian Ocean Geopolitics

oxfordre.com

Chagos Archipelago | Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Asian History

Notes on Diego Garcia

• Joint UK/US military base

  • Diego Garcia serves as a strategic military asset for both the United Kingdom and the United States, allowing for shared resources and operational capabilities in the Indian Ocean region.

• 50 year lease (2016) with a 20 year extension (2036)

  • The lease arrangement underscores the long-term military cooperation between the UK and US, facilitating sustained military presence and operations in the area.
  • The UK received $14 million towards the purchase of Polaris missiles, indicating reciprocal benefits from the lease.

• Uses?

  • "Unsinkable aircraft carrier" to project power

    • The base acts as a pivotal location for projecting military force across the Indian Ocean and into conflict zones, making it strategically significant during periods of global tension (e.g., Cold War, Gulf Wars).

  • CIA Black Site in the early 2000s (GWOT)

    • The base played a role in the "Global War on Terror," housing a CIA black site for detaining and interrogating suspected terrorists, showcasing its use in intelligence and covert operations.

  • "Extraordinary Rendition" refueling site

    • Diego Garcia facilitated the controversial practice of extraordinary rendition, where individuals were forcibly transferred between jurisdictions for interrogation, raising ethical and legal concerns.

• What makes this particular location so important/desirable?

  • The strategic significance of Diego Garcia lies in its geographic location, allowing for rapid deployment of military assets in a pivotal region, serving both operational and logistical purposes for the US and UK military.

Extended readings:

www.naval-technology.com

UK retain Diego Garcia military base, but concede sovereignty over ...

installations.militaryonesource.mil

Navy Support Facility Diego Garcia | Base Overview & Info

www.gov.uk

safeguarding the operation of strategic military base - GOV.UK

ICJ Decision on Chagos Archipelago

• 2019 ICJ Advisory Opinion

  • The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion regarding the Chagos Archipelago, which was endorsed by the UN General Assembly.
    • The opinion stated that the decolonization process of Mauritius was not completed lawfully at the time it gained independence. This highlights the issues surrounding colonial legacies and the rights of formerly colonized nations.

• UK's Obligations

  • The UK was deemed to have an obligation to end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as quickly as possible.
    • This reflects international expectations for former colonial powers to resolve outstanding issues related to colonial territories.

• 2021 Urging from the UN

  • The UK was urged to terminate its "unlawful occupation" of the Chagos by the UN's special international maritime court.
    • The language used emphasizes the international community's view of the UK's stance as not just controversial, but legally indefensible.

• Mauritius's Position

  • Mauritius stated, "The UK has to go away and reflect on what it intends to do, but its current position is untenable."
    • This sentiment indicates Mauritius’s frustration with prolonged negotiations and the need for a resolution that acknowledges its sovereignty.

• 2022 Negotiations

  • In 2022, discussions began between the UK and Mauritius, indicating a potential shift in the dynamic and a willingness to engage in dialogue.
    • However, there were concerns over the inclusion of Chagossian voices in these negotiations, suggesting that the affected populations have a critical role in discussions about their homeland.

• 2024 Announcement

  • On October 3, 2024, the UK announced its intent to relinquish sovereignty over the British Indian Ocean Territory and transfer control of the Chagos to Mauritius.
    • This decision may have been influenced by various factors, including recent political developments in the UK, such as Brexit and pressures from pan-African movements, as well as ongoing global conflicts affecting international relations.

• Implications of Recent Events

  • The decision can be seen as a consequence of recent UK elections and broader geopolitical pressures, illustrating how domestic politics can intersect with international legal obligations and colonial legacies.

Extended readings:

news.un.org

Chagos Islands: UK's last African colony returned to Mauritius

www.ohchr.org

Chagossians should be centre stage in negotiations between ...

press.un.org

General Assembly Welcomes International Court of Justice Opinion ...

What Now?

• UK and US Operations on Diego Garcia

  • The UK and the US will operate the military base on Diego Garcia for a period of 99 years.
    • Thoughts: This lengthy operational duration indicates ongoing strategic military interests in the region. It raises questions about the long-term implications for local populations and geopolitical stability.

• Resettlement of Diego Garcia

  • Diego Garcia will NOT be resettled.
    • Ideas: This decision reflects a lack of consideration for potential rehousing of displaced populations, particularly the Chagossians, whose voices are often overlooked in these discussions.

• Concerns About Repatriation

  • There are concerns regarding the repatriation process and the exclusion of Chagossian voices from discussions primarily controlled by the UK and Mauritius.
    • Explanation: The Chagossians, forcibly removed from their homeland, continue to seek justice and recognition. Their exclusion from diplomatic talks exacerbates feelings of disenfranchisement.

• Migrant Camp Situation

  • In 2021, approximately 60 Tamil asylum seekers from Sri Lanka arrived in Diego Garcia.
    • Context: This raises humanitarian concerns about the treatment of refugees and asylum seekers who face legal and social hurdles.

• UK Asylum Process Hesitation

  • The UK has hesitated to adjudicate the asylum claims of these individuals, effectively limiting their legal status and rights.
    • Ideas: Delays in the asylum process can lead to increased psychological stress for migrants who are often fleeing persecution. This can be viewed as a failure of the UK to uphold its legal and moral obligations.

• Imprisonment Under Armed Guard

  • Many have been effectively imprisoned under armed guard for three years.
    • Thoughts: This situation reflects significant human rights concerns, as it may violate international norms regarding the treatment of asylum seekers and refugees.

• Transfer to Rwanda

  • Several individuals have been transferred to Rwanda following incidents of self-harm.
    • Ideas: This transfer raises ethical questions about the care and treatment of vulnerable populations. Rwanda’s capacity to adequately support these individuals may be questioned.

• Temporary "Safe Center" Plan

  • The current plan involves transferring the migrants to a "safe center" run by the UN in Romania, with an uncertain time frame of up to six months.
    • Explanation: This temporary solution appears to be a stopgap measure while the UK assesses how to handle the situation. It reflects a lack of a long-term strategic plan for dealing with migrant issues.

Goals

Early Post-Soviet Russian Imperatives

• Russia must remain a nuclear superpower

  • The nuclear capability is crucial for Russia's security and status on the global stage, ensuring it retains influence over other nations.

• Russia must remain a great power in all facets of international activity

  • This goal emphasizes the importance of being active in international politics, economics, and cultural exchanges to maintain global relevance.

• Russia must remain the hegemon of its region

  • Here, "hegemon" refers to Russia's aim to lead politically, economically, and militarily within its sphere of influence, which includes former Soviet states.

Addition Post-2000

• Russia must recover the economic, political, political, and geostrategic assets lost by the Soviet state in 1991

  • Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia lost significant influence and resources. This recovery is essential to reestablish its position.

• Both a domestic and foreign policy goal

  • This dual focus indicates that Russia's internal policies directly impact its external relations and power projection.

  • Domestic: control of economy (especially oil and natural gas), media, national politics, judiciary, etc.

    • Control over vital resources like oil and gas reinforces economic stability and political power. The media and judiciary are critical for maintaining governmental authority and suppressing dissent.

  • Foreign: all of the above (and then some...)

    • This illustrates the interconnectedness of domestic and foreign policy, where internal control strengthens Russia's international standing and negotiation power.

Extended readings:

www.aei.org

The Putin Doctrine | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

www.jstor.org

R ussian O utlook - jstor

nwc.ndu.edu

[PDF] RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY: A QUEST FOR GREAT POWER ...

Putin's Rise to and Concentration of Power

• 1975-1991: KGB

  • Background in the KGB, the main security agency for the Soviet Union, which provided him with networks and experience in governance and intelligence.

• 1999: Yeltsin names him Acting Prime Minister

  • Boris Yeltsin appointed him as a strategic move, perhaps due to Putin's loyalty and effectiveness seen in his KGB career.

• December 1999: Yeltsin resigns and Putin becomes Acting President

  • Significant transition in leadership, marking the emergence of Putin as a key figure in Russian politics.

• 2000: Wins 1st Presidential election

  • Demonstrated significant electoral support, paving the way for future consolidations of power.

• 2000-2004: 1st Presidential Term

  • Early years focused on stabilizing the country and consolidating power after the chaotic post-Soviet era.

• 2004-2008: 2nd Presidential Term

  • Continued focus on economic recovery and strengthening political control, amidst rising tensions with the West.

• 2008-2012: 2nd Premiership

  • Due to constitutional limits, Putin acted as Prime Minister while Medvedev assumed presidency. This period highlighted the flexibility of Russian political structures to maintain Putin's influence.

  • Barred from a 3rd consecutive presidential term:

    • Indicated the challenges of sustaining power amid constitutional limits, yet he maneuvered effectively.

  • Transfers power to the PM, becomes PM with Medvedev as President, changes constitution, transfers power back:

    • This maneuvering illustrates a strategic approach to political power dynamics.

• 2012-2018: 3rd Presidential Term

  • A return to the presidency amid political protests and a renewed assertiveness on the global stage.

• 2018-2024: 4th Presidential Term

  • January 15, 2020: Government resignation after Putin suggested constitutional amendments prior to 2024:

    • Indicated preparedness to adapt governance structures for longevity in power.

  • Removed the consecutive clause and nullify previous terms:

    • Allowed him to reset his political timeline, reinforcing his hold over Russian leadership.

  • Concentrates power in the hands of the President over other organs of government:

    • Indicates an increasing centralization of authority, limiting checks on presidential power.

  • Passed in July 2020:

    • Significant move to strengthen his position anteing the upcoming elections.

  • Said he would not run for President again in 2024:

    • Initial statements might have been seen as a political maneuver, emphasizing a transitional phase.

  • But he did and won with 88.48% of the vote:

    • This reflects the significant control he maintains over electoral processes and public opinion, despite potential dissent.

These points illustrate the complex political maneuvering and strategic adaptations employed by Putin to consolidate and maintain power in Russia over more than two decades.

Nuclear Superpower

• Official 2020 Position:

  • Link: Official Position
  • This document outlines the formal stance on nuclear disarmament and international safety, reflecting the country's strategic approach to nuclear weapons.

• Changes:

  • Link: Analysis on Changes
  • This resource discusses the evolving nuclear strategy of Russia in response to international pressures and changes in global security dynamics.

• Opposition to NATO Missile Defense:

  • Russia has voiced strong opposition to NATO’s missile defense initiatives in Europe, viewing them as a threat to its national security.
  • This highlights ongoing tensions between NATO member states and Russia regarding missile deployment and defense systems.

• New START Treaty:

  • Extended to 2026 in 2021, this treaty limits deployed nuclear warheads to 1550 each.
  • The treaty plays a crucial role in arms control, aiming to promote strategic stability between the major nuclear powers.

• Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) :

  • The INF Treaty, which was designed to eliminate land-based ballistic missiles, died on August 2, 2019.
  • This treaty's demise raises concerns over a renewed arms race, as both the U.S. and Russia may now expand their missile capabilities.

• New Weapons Development:

  • Both Russia and the United States are currently developing and deploying new nuclear weapons systems.
  • This indicates a shift towards modernization of arsenals, which could escalate global tensions.

• Exporting Nuclear Technology:

  • Countries like China, Turkey, India, Belarus, Bangladesh, and Iran are receiving nuclear technology from Russia.
  • This proliferation poses significant geopolitical risks as it may empower other nations with nuclear capabilities.

• Cooperative Threat Reduction Program:

  • Russia has left this program, which aimed to dismantle weapons of mass destruction in former Soviet states.
  • The exit from this program raises concerns regarding the safety and management of nuclear materials.

• Upshot:

  • The perceived "threat of devastating nuclear war" is rising globally, noted as being at the "highest level for decades."
  • Awareness of nuclear risks is encapsulated in the concept of the Doomsday Clock, which symbolizes the proximity of human civilization to catastrophic destruction.

Extended readings:

www.state.gov

New START Treaty - United States Department of State

www.tandfonline.com

Full article: The Deep Crisis of Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament

www.armscontrol.org

Russia and Its Nuclear Modernization Plans

"Great Power" Status

• Activism in regional and international affairs

  • Russia has been actively involved in several geopolitical issues reflecting its "Great Power" status. This activism includes:
    • Syria: Russia's involvement supports the Assad regime and extends its influence in the Middle East.
    • Armenia-Azerbaijan: Russia plays a mediating role in this conflict, asserting its influence over former Soviet republics.
    • Georgia: The recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states by Russia demonstrates its willingness to challenge Western influence in the region.
    • Ukraine: The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine signify a significant assertion of power.
    • Baltic States: Russia's military posturing and presence in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia raise security concerns among NATO allies.

• Commitment to Russian ethnic minorities

  • 2002 Citizenship Law: This law simplifies the process for former Soviet citizens to acquire Russian citizenship, which is strategically significant, particularly in territories with Russian populations.
    • Thought: The aim is to maintain a connection and influence over Russian-speaking populations outside of Russia, potentially acting as a pretext for intervention.
  • 2014 Putin Doctrine: This doctrine asserts Russia’s responsibility to protect ethnic Russians globally, legitimizing military action under the guise of protection.
    • Additional Information: This doctrine has been cited in justifications for actions in Crimea and Ukraine, indicating the extension of Russian influence based on ethnic ties.

Maps Included

• Maps: The presentation includes various maps showcasing regions affected by Russian policies and military activities, highlighting geopolitical tensions in Europe and surrounding areas. These visuals emphasize the strategic interests of Russia in maintaining influence over former Soviet territories.

Extended readings:

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Geopolitics and Political Geography in Russia: Global Context and ...

crsreports.congress.gov

[PDF] Great Power Competition: Implications for Defense—Issues for ...

www.bbc.com

Russia country profile - BBC News

Georgia and South Ossetia

• Republic of South Ossetia:

  • A de facto state in the South Caucasus, recognized as part of Georgia.
  • Recognized only by Russia, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria.
  • This limited recognition highlights the geopolitical complexities and alignments in the region.

• Independence from Georgia:

  • Declared independence in 1991.
  • A war occurred from 1991-1992, resulting in a Russian-brokered ceasefire.
  • The conflict led to significant displacement, with about 100,000 ethnic Ossetians fleeing to North Ossetia (Russia), while around 23,000 ethnic Georgians moved to Georgia.
  • The unresolved status of the conflict shows ongoing tensions and the fragile stability in the area.

• Market Issues:

  • Markets in the region turned into a hub for illegal goods, reflecting the economic instability and the presence of unregulated trade.
  • Economic conditions may contribute to ongoing conflicts, as local economies struggle with legality and stability.

• Georgian Political Resurgence (2004) :

  • The new Georgian president sought to reassert control over self-proclaimed "breakaway" regions.
  • Closed markets and intercepted a Russian convoy, indicating a change in domestic policy that could escalate tensions.
  • Russia’s intent to protect Russian citizens suggests a proactive stance in the region, potentially justifying future military interventions.

• Russo-Georgian War (2008) :

  • Pro-Russian separatists broke the ceasefire, prompting the Georgian army to respond.
  • The conflict escalated with Russia conducting a "peace enforcement operation," further intensifying the humanitarian crisis in the region, including ethnic cleansing of Georgian villages.
  • Russia's ongoing occupation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia complicates peace efforts, as it undermines Georgian sovereignty and fosters prolonged instability.

This overview encapsulates key events and their implications on regional stability and international relations in the South Caucasus.

Extended readings:

researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk

[PDF] Georgia: The conflict with Russia and the crisis in South Ossetia

pesd.princeton.edu

Georgia: Abkhazia and South Ossetia

www.vertic.org

[PDF] The Georgia—South Ossetia Conflict - Vertic

Russia and Ukraine

• Background of Ukraine's Political Shift

  • Ukraine sought closer ties with the EU and NATO in the early 2000s.
    • This reflects a broader trend in post-Soviet countries aiming for European integration and distancing from Russian influence.

• 2014 Protests (Euromaidan)

  • Protests erupted in February 2014 when the Ukrainian government halted an EU association agreement in favor of the Eurasian Economic Union.

    • The public's reaction was rooted in a desire for democratic reforms and alignment with European standards.

  • The President fled to Russia amidst escalating protests.

    • This demonstrates a significant loss of authority for the Ukrainian government and a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape.

  • Protesters took control, ousting the President, who deemed the protests illegal and sought Russian assistance.

    • This highlights the internal conflict and division within Ukraine, with some regions supporting the government and others opposing it.

  • Protests against the revolution emerged in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.

    • Reflects regional differences in political support, with more pro-Russian sentiments in the East.

  • Russia sent in troops, exacerbating the conflict.

    • Marks the beginning of direct military involvement by Russia and raises questions about sovereignty and international law.

• Crimea's Independence Referendum

  • Crimea held an independence referendum and voted to join Russia, despite being part of Ukraine since 1954.

    • The historical context of Crimea's annexation is crucial, as it was transferred to Ukraine during the Soviet era and carries significance for both nations.

  • Sevastopol was already a federal city of the Russian Federation.

    • This strategic location underscores Russia's interest in maintaining a naval presence in the Black Sea.

  • The referendum was deemed illegitimate by many, particularly after a Security Council resolution was vetoed.

    • Highlights issues regarding the legality and legitimacy of referendums in conflict zones.

• Ukraine’s Struggle Against Separatists

  • Ukraine began fighting Russian-backed separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk.

    • This ongoing conflict has a profound humanitarian impact and raises issues of international response and intervention.

  • Russia recognized these regions as independent in 2022, intensifying tensions.

    • This recognition further complicates peace efforts and international relations.

• Current Situation

  • War continues, with a potential internal legitimacy crisis in Ukraine.

    • The conflict has led to significant national challenges, including governance and public trust.

  • September 2022 referendums in occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast) were reported.

    • This process lacks recognition from Ukraine and most of the international community, raising questions about self-determination and territorial integrity.

  • Areas annexed by Russia are illegal under both international and Ukrainian law.

    • This illegality emphasizes the ongoing dispute and the struggle for international law to govern state sovereignty and territorial claims.

Russia in the Baltic States

• Annexation of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 1940

  • Russia's annexation was condemned by the US, highlighting historical tensions and issues regarding sovereignty in the region.
  • This event set a precedent for future Russian claims and actions in neighboring territories.

• Portrayal of Occupation as Legitimate

  • Recently, Russia has attempted to frame its actions in the Baltic States as consensual, which has faced significant backlash and protests.
  • This portrays a narrative that undermines the sovereignty of these states, potentially complicating international relations.

• NATO and EU Membership Since 1991

  • The Baltic States have integrated into NATO and the EU, which enhances their security but also brings challenges due to the sizeable ethnic Russian populations living within their borders.
  • These populations are often seen as a leverage point for Russia, as they claim to protect their interests.

• Concerns of Confrontation Involving NATO

  • There are fears that Russia may instigate a situation to push NATO into a conflict, potentially leading to nuclear confrontations.
  • This reflects the fragile security situation in Eastern Europe and the risk of miscalculation leading to a larger conflict.

• Potential Overrun of Defenses

  • The assertion that existing defenses could be quickly overwhelmed emphasizes the urgency and seriousness of the situation in the Baltic region.
  • Military preparedness and strategic planning are essential to counter potential aggressions.

• Changes in Nuclear Deterrence Dynamics

  • The changing landscape affects how nuclear deterrence is viewed, particularly Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which mandates collective defense.
  • A strong commitment to NATO's collective defense is crucial for deterrence against any acts of aggression.

• Biden's Commitment to NATO

  • President Biden’s statement reinforces the US's dedication to NATO, indicating a strong stance against threats to member states.
  • Such commitments can serve to bolster confidence among NATO members and deter Russian aggression in the region.

Extended readings:

www.nato.int

De-bunking Russian disinformation on NATO

www.jstor.org

NATO, the Baltic States and Russia - jstor

www.nytimes.com

Biden Braces NATO for Long Conflict With Russia, Making Cold War ...

Hegemony in Eurasia

• Political, economic, military, and cultural reintegration of the former Soviet bloc in Eurasia
  This concept refers to the various mechanisms through which Russia is seeking to re-establish influence over the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. Understanding this hegemony is crucial for analyzing current geopolitical dynamics in Eurasia.

• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

  • Type: Free-trade area
  • Insight: The CIS serves as a platform for member states to enhance economic cooperation and facilitate trade. It reflects an effort to sustain economic ties that existed during the Soviet period.

• Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

  • Members: Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
  • Insight: The CSTO is a military alliance that addresses security concerns among member states. It illustrates how military collaborations can reinforce political ties and mutual defense commitments.

• Eurasian Union

  • Type: Single economic market
  • Insight: Similar to the European Union, the Eurasian Union aims to create a seamless economic area that fosters trade, investment, and movement among its members. This idea is central to Russia’s strategy of regional integration.

• "Finlandization"

  • Concept: Countries within the sphere of influence can choose their own domestic political and economic systems, but foreign policy is controlled by Russia
  • Insight: This term describes a form of indirect control whereby countries maintain nominal sovereignty while aligning with Moscow's broader strategic interests, particularly in foreign policy.

• Combined with increasing Asia-Pacific integration

  • Shanghai Cooperation Organization
  • Asian Cooperation Dialogue
  • Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
  • Insight: This highlights how Russia is not only focused on its immediate neighborhood but is also looking to establish itself as a key player in the larger Asia-Pacific region. This strategy may involve various economic and security partnerships to strengthen its global influence.

Summary Table

Organization	Type	Members
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)	Free-trade area	Former Soviet states
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)	Military alliance	Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan
Eurasian Union	Single economic market	Member states of the Eurasian Union
Shanghai Cooperation Organization	Regional security cooperation	Various Asian countries including China and Russia
Asian Cooperation Dialogue	Economic cooperation	Asian regional members
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation	Economic forum	Asia-Pacific nations

Extended readings:

jamestown.org

[PDF] Eurasian Disunion: Russia's Vulnerable Flanks

www.ponarseurasia.org

[PDF] POLICY CONFERENCE - PONARS Eurasia

link.springer.com

9780230293168.pdf

What is Genocide?

• Definition of Genocide:

  • Genocide is defined by the Rome Statute (2002) as acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.
  • This definition emphasizes the intent behind the actions, distinguishing it from other forms of violence or mass killings.

• Acts Constituting Genocide:

  • (a) Killing members of the group:

    • This is the most straightforward act of genocide, where individuals are targeted and murdered based on their group identity.
    • Historical examples include the Holocaust and the Rwandan Genocide, where systematic killings were executed.

  • (b) Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group:

    • This includes torture, rape, and other forms of violence that cause lasting physical or psychological damage.
    • Such harm can also lead to the destruction of cultural identity, as victims may be left traumatized.

  • (c) Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part:

    • This can include deprivation of resources, restrictions on movement, or other actions that lead to death.
    • The intent is often to create a situation where the targeted group cannot survive.

  • (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group:

    • This includes forced sterilization, abortion, and other measures aimed at controlling the reproduction of a group.
    • Such acts can have long-lasting effects on the demographic composition and survival of the group.

  • (e) Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group:

    • This act involves taking children away from their families and communities, often to raise them in a different cultural environment.
    • This practice has been used to assimilate minority groups and erase their cultural identity.

Additional Thoughts

• The definition of genocide as outlined in the Rome Statute is crucial for international law and human rights, as it provides a framework for prosecution.
• Understanding these acts not only helps in identifying genocide but also in preventing it by addressing the underlying causes of such violence.
• Global awareness and education about genocide can play a significant role in prevention efforts and in supporting survivors.

Extended readings:

www.ushmm.org

Definitions: Types of Mass Atrocities

www.un.org

Definitions of Genocide and Related Crimes - the United Nations

www.icc-cpi.int

[PDF] Elements of Crimes - | International Criminal Court

Diez Etapas del Genocidio

• 1. Clasificación

  • Se refiere a la división de la sociedad en grupos diferenciados (por ejemplo, "nosotros" versus "ellos"). Esta etapa establece las bases para futuras discriminaciones y violencia. La clasificación puede basarse en la etnia, religión, nacionalidad o género, y es fundamental para identificar a las potenciales víctimas del genocidio.

• 2. Simbolización

  • En esta etapa, se da un significado simbólico a la diferencia entre los grupos. Esto puede incluir el uso de insignias, vestimenta o etiquetas que identifican y diferencian a los grupos entre sí. La simbolización retroalimenta la división y fomenta el odio y la exclusión.

• 3. Discriminación

  • Las leyes y políticas que discriminan a un grupo específico son implementadas, reforzando el estigma social y la exclusión. Los derechos de los grupos identificados son restringidos, lo que les impide participar plenamente en la sociedad.

• 4. Deshumanización

  • Se presenta a los miembros del grupo victimizado como seres subhumanos, lo que justifica su maltrato y la violencia organizada en su contra. Esta etapa es crucial, ya que elimina la empatía y humanización del otro, permitiendo actos de violencia sin reparos morales.

• 5. Organización

  • En esta fase se estructura la maquinaria del genocidio, reclutando y organizando a perpetradores. Las milicias y otros grupos organizados son formados con el objetivo de ejecutar la violencia de manera sistemática.

• 6. Polarización

  • Se intensifica el conflicto entre grupos, donde se promueven ideologías extremas. Los medios de comunicación a menudo juegan un papel en esta etapa, amplificando la propaganda y el odio hacia el grupo objetivo.

• 7. Preparación

  • Se llevan a cabo planes concretos para llevar a cabo el genocidio, incluyendo la construcción de campos de concentración y el almacenamiento de armas. En esta etapa, las comunidades atacadas pueden ser alertadas, pero a menudo no pueden actuar para protegerse.

• 8. Persecución

  • Esta etapa implica la detención y deportación masiva de los grupos perseguidos. La violencia se hace más visible, y a menudo incluye la ejecución de líderes y miembros de la comunidad objetivo.

• 9. Exterminio

  • Es el acto final y sistemático de eliminar al grupo victimizado. Aquí se llevan a cabo asesinatos en masa, muchas veces utilizando métodos organizados y eficaces. Esta etapa se considera finalmente como genocidio.

• 10. Negación

  • La etapa final implica la negación del genocidio, donde se minimizan los actos o se culpa a las víctimas. La negación perpetúa el ciclo de violencia y puede ocurrir incluso años después de que se haya completado el genocidio.

Recursos

• Genocide Watch - Diez etapas del genocidio

What is "Ethnic Cleansing"?

• Not recognized as an independent crime under international law

  • Ethnic cleansing does not have a specific legal definition that classifies it as a stand-alone crime, which complicates accountability for those who engage in such acts.

• "Rendering an area ethnically homogeneous by using force or intimidation to remove persons of given groups from the area"

  • This definition highlights the intention to create a singular ethnic identity in a geographic location, often connecting this practice to historical settler colonialism, where indigenous populations were removed or oppressed.

• Purposeful Policies

  • It involves calculated efforts by one ethnic or religious group to eliminate the presence of another. This can manifest in various severe violations of human rights.

• Acts Associated with Ethnic Cleansing:

  • Murder and Torture: These heinous acts are often employed to instill fear and compel migration.
  • Arbitrary Arrest and Detention: Individuals may be unjustly imprisoned to target specific ethnic groups.
  • Extrajudicial Executions: Targeted killings without legal process often form part of a broader strategy to eliminate an ethnic identity.

• Severe Physical Injury and Sexual Assaults: These acts signify both a tactic of domination and a means to terrorize communities.

• Displacement and Deportation: Forcing individuals from their homes is a core tactic of ethnic cleansing, aiming to alter the demographic composition.

• Military Attacks on Civilians: Such actions generally violate international humanitarian law, denoting a direct assault on non-combatants.

• Destruction of Property: Destroying homes and institutions serves to erase cultural identity and history.

• Potential Classification as a Crime Against Humanity

  • Although not specifically categorized as such in international law, elements of ethnic cleansing overlap with crimes against humanity, especially when widespread and systematic as part of a larger policy.

This summary emphasizes the complexities and realities surrounding the concept of ethnic cleansing, reinforcing the serious human rights implications involved.

Extended readings:

www.britannica.com

Ethnic cleansing | War Crimes & Genocide Prevention | Britannica

en.wikipedia.org

Ethnic cleansing - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

List

Notes on Rome Statute Article 7: Crimes Against Humanity

• Definition of 'Crime Against Humanity'

  • Refers to acts committed as part of a widespread or systematic attack against any civilian population, with knowledge of the attack.
  • This definition is pivotal for international law, establishing accountability for severe breaches of human rights.

• List of Crimes Included:

  • Murder: The unlawful premeditated killing of individuals.

    • Significance: Represents one of the most serious violations of personal rights, often serving as a foundational crime in cases of genocide.

  • Extermination: Acts aimed at causing mass death, particularly of groups.

    • Thought: This can include actions that are indirectly destructive, such as systematic deprivation of resources.

  • Enslavement: The act of making individuals property.

    • Additional Info: Enslavement has persisted in various forms globally, highlighting ongoing human rights abuses.

  • Deportation or Forcible Transfer of Population: The forced removal of people from their homes.

    • Reflection: This often occurs in the context of ethnic cleansing and can lead to long-term trauma for affected communities.

  • Imprisonment or Severe Deprivation of Liberty: Restricting the freedom of individuals without legal justification.

    • Context: Such actions often violate basic human rights principles.

  • Torture: Inflicting severe pain or suffering for purposes such as punishment or intimidation.

    • Consideration: Torture is often used as a tool of oppression in authoritarian regimes.

  • Rape and Sexual Violence: Includes a range of actions from rape to enforced prostitution.

    • Importance: Acknowledges the gendered nature of violence and the specific vulnerabilities faced by women in conflict.

  • Persecution: Targeting identifiable groups based on attributes such as race or political beliefs.

    • Insight: This crime highlights systemic discrimination and can lead to broader societal unrest.

  • Enforced Disappearance: The act of abducting individuals and denying their fate or whereabouts.

    • Thought: This creates terror in communities and undermines trust in governmental institutions.

  • Crime of Apartheid: Systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over another.

    • Context: Apartheid as a crime emphasizes global recognition of institutionalized discrimination.

  • Other Inhumane Acts: Actions causing great suffering or serious injury to mental or physical health.

    • Reflection: This broad category allows for the prosecution of numerous human rights violations not specifically listed.

• Overall Significance

  • Article 7 serves as a critical framework for holding individuals accountable in international law.
  • It underlines the international community's responsibility to prevent and punish such crimes, reflecting the commitment to uphold human dignity globally.

Who Are The Rohingya?

• Historical Background

  • From the Arakan region in Southeast Asia since the 1400s.
  • Became part of Burma during British conquest; promised independence by the British after WWII but were incorporated into an independent Burmese state instead.
    • This reflects the colonial legacy that often disregards ethnic and cultural distinctions, leading to tensions post-independence.

• Demographics

  • Majority are Muslim (a blend of Sunni and Sufism).
    • This diversity in belief systems can lead to cultural distinctions even within the Muslim community.

• Recognition and Persecution

  • The United Nations calls them "the most persecuted minority in the world."
    • Their persecution is marked by a series of military operations:
      • Operations: Pure Gold (1959), Crow (1966), Conqueror (1967), More Purity (1971), Millions of Success (1973), Purify and Whiten Like the Jasmine Flower (1974), Dragon King (1978-1979), Operation Clean and Beautiful Nation (1991), etc.
        • These operations highlight ongoing systemic discrimination and efforts to suppress the Rohingya identity.

• Citizenship Issues

  • The 1982 Burmese Nationality Law identifies 135 national "races" of Burma but excludes the Rohingya, rendering them stateless.
    • This legal exclusion underscores the systematic denial of rights based on ethnic identity, which can lead to further marginalization.

• Status as Immigrants

  • The Rohingya are labeled as "illegal immigrants," "Bengali invaders," and "terrorists."
    • Such terminology serves to delegitimize their claims to citizenship and contribute to widespread discrimination and violence against them.

Burma/Myanmar Political History

Year	Event/Development
1885	Conquered by the British as part of British India until 1937
1947	Coup against the Japanese during WWII
1947	Gains independence under the leadership of Aung San (assassinated 1947)
1962-1988	Military rule under Socialist Program led by General Ne Win
1988	Uprising leading to martial law, protests, and democratic calls
1990	Aung San Suu Kyi wins by a landslide but placed under house arrest
2010	Military-backed government held elections; Aung San Suu Kyi becomes a key political figure again
2016	Aung San Suu Kyi becomes State Counsellor, de facto head of government
(No date)	The next wave of the genocide had already begun

• Contextual Note:
  • The political history reveals the cyclical nature of oppression and resistance in Myanmar, with the Rohingya being a recurrent subject of exclusion and violence amidst broader national conflicts.

Extended readings:

www.cfr.org

What Forces Are Fueling Myanmar's Rohingya Crisis?

en.wikipedia.org

Rohingya people - Wikipedia

www.aljazeera.com

Who are the Rohingya? - Al Jazeera

Burma/Myanmar Political History

• Conquered by the British in 1885 and ruled as part of British India until 1937

  • This period marked the beginning of British colonial influence, which altered the social and economic structures of Burma, resulting in long-term impacts on the political landscape.

• Conquered by the Japanese during WWII

  • Japan's occupation led to significant hardship for the Burmese population, but also sowed the seeds for nationalistic movements against colonial powers.

• Gains independence in 1948 under leadership of Aung San (assassinated 1947)

  • Aung San is recognized as a pivotal figure in the independence movement. His assassination just a year before independence created a political vacuum that contributed to future instability.

• Becomes a military state in 1962

  • General Ne Win’s coup d'état resulted in the suppression of political dissent and the establishment of a single-party socialist state.

  • 1962-1988 controlled by Burma Socialist Programme Party led by General Ne Win

    • This era was characterized by economic mismanagement and isolation from the international community, leading to widespread poverty.

  • Religious tensions among Buddhists, Muslims, Hindu, Christians, Animists, etc.

    • The discriminatory policies exacerbated existing ethnic and religious divisions, laying the groundwork for future conflicts.

• Uprising in 1988 led to a military junta

  • Triggered by public discontent, the protests were met with violent suppression, marking a turning point in Burmese resistance movements.

  • Refused to recognize the 1990 election results

    • The military junta’s refusal to acknowledge the electoral outcome demonstrates the persistent challenges of democratic governance in Myanmar.

  • Placed Aung San Suu Kyi, revolutionary leader, under house arrest

    • Aung San Suu Kyi became a prominent symbol of the struggle for democracy and human rights, earning international recognition.

  • State Law and Order Restoration Council takes over

    • The junta formally reorganized its control over the state, further centralizing power and limiting civil liberties.

• In 2008 the Army drafted a new constitution approved by 92.4% (turnout 99%) of voters

  • The constitution was controversial and viewed by many as a means to legitimize military power while giving a veneer of democracy.

• In 2010 the Union Solidarity and Development Party backed by the military declared victory

  • This electoral victory was suspected of being manipulated to ensure military interests remained entrenched in power.

• In 2012 the opposition party National League for Democracy picked up seats

  • This indicated a shift in public sentiment and a demand for more representative governance despite ongoing military influence.

• In 2015 the National League for Democracy won an absolute majority in both chambers of parliament

  • This election marked a significant moment in Myanmar’s political transition, yet challenges remained as the military retained considerable power.

• Aung San Suu Kyi becomes State Counsellor, de facto head of government

  • Her leadership brought hope, but criticisms arose regarding her handling of ethnic conflicts, especially in Rakhine State.

• 2016 Aung San Suu Kyi wins the Nobel Peace Prize

  • This recognition was bittersweet, as increasing reports of human rights abuses, particularly against the Rohingya, cast a shadow on her legacy.

  • The next wave of the genocide had already begun

    • The ongoing humanitarian crisis stemming from ethnic violence highlighted deep-seated issues in Myanmar’s sociopolitical landscape that remain unresolved.

Most Recent Wave of the Genocide, 2016-2017-Present?

• 2005 the UN assists with the "repatriation" of Rohingya from Bangladesh

  • This indicates early involvement of the UN in Rohingya issues, which might have set the stage for ongoing conflicts. The term "repatriation" suggests a forced return rather than a voluntary movement.

• 2015 Allard K. Lowenstein International Human Rights Clinic at Yale argued that the government aided by extremist Buddhist monks were already committing genocide against the Rohingya

  • This highlights academic and human rights organizations' recognition of the deteriorating situation for the Rohingya prior to the most severe violence, emphasizing that systematic persecution was not a new issue.

• October 9, 2016: armed individuals attacked border police posts in Rakhine State leaving nine personnel dead

  • The attack marks a significant escalation in the conflict, suggesting that extremist elements within the Rohingya community were responding to the oppression. This event may have triggered a violent military response.

• A Rohingya insurgent group, Harakah al-Yaqin, claimed responsibility

  • The recognition of a formal insurgent group indicates an organized resistance movement, which can complicate the conflict further as it introduces armed opposition.

• Operation Total Liquidation or Total Cleansing of the Land

  • This operation reflects a military strategy aimed at eradicating the Rohingya population, analogous to ethnic cleansing attempts seen historically in significant conflicts around the world.

• Military crackdown on the Rohingya people

  • This term encompasses a range of violent actions by the military and illustrates the systematic approach to forcibly removing the Rohingya from their homeland.

  • Arrests, extrajudicial killings, gang rapes, looting, burning villages, etc.

    • These acts represent severe human rights violations. Such brutality tends to instill fear among the population, leading to displacement and a refugee crisis.

  • Thousands killed

    • The scale of murder suggests a concerted effort at mass extermination, raising serious humanitarian concerns and the need for international intervention.

  • "Information black hole"

    • This phrase suggests a lack of transparency and access to information regarding the atrocities, complicating the international community’s ability to respond effectively and monitor human rights.

  • Reports of targeting children

    • Targeting vulnerable populations like children amplifies the severity of the situation and can lead to lifelong trauma and displacement, affecting future generations.

This summary encapsulates the critical elements of the ongoing genocide against the Rohingya people and ties various aspects of the conflict to broader themes of human rights, military aggression, and international involvement.

Extended readings:

en.wikipedia.org

Rohingya genocide - Wikipedia

www.state.gov

Burma Genocide - United States Department of State

www.hrw.org

Rohingya | Human Rights Watch

Notes on Rohingya Violence and Human Rights Violations

• Systematic Violence Against the Rohingya

  • The excerpt describes extreme violence faced by the Rohingya people in Myanmar, highlighting atrocities such as massacres, the razing of villages, and sexual violence.
  • This indicates a broader issue of ethnic cleansing, where targeted groups face coordinated efforts to eliminate their presence in a region.

• Gender-Based Violence

  • The mention of systematic rape and violence against women points to a disturbing pattern seen in conflict zones, where women often bear the brunt of warfare.
  • Such acts not only serve immediate terror but also aim to destabilize communities and destroy the social fabric.

• Dehumanization and Justification of Violence

  • The text points out that the perpetrators label the Rohingya as "vermin," a tactic used to dehumanize victims, making it easier to justify violence against them.
  • This dehumanization is a common rhetorical strategy in genocidal contexts, often facilitating public support for violence.

• Complicity and Indifference

  • The assertion that the majority of the population applauds this brutality suggests a complicity or indifference among other community members or segments of society.
  • This raises questions about the ethical responsibilities of bystanders and the societal factors that contribute to such widespread acceptance of violence.

• Military Justification

  • The army's labeling of Rohingya as "terrorists" indicates how state apparatus can redefine narratives to legitimize oppressive actions.
  • This reflects a pattern seen globally where governments utilize the “terrorist” label to justify repressive measures against marginalized communities.

• Source Citation

  • The information is sourced from the book "First, They Erased Our Name" by Habiburahman and Ansel, which documents the experiences of the Rohingya people and the systematic violence they face.
  • Understanding the book's context is vital for comprehending the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the historical background of Rohingya oppression.

Extended readings:

www.amazon.com

First, They Erased Our Name: a Rohingya speaks - Amazon.com

www.amazon.com

First, They Erased Our Name: A Rohingya Speaks - Amazon.com

scribepublications.com

First, They Erased Our Name | Book - Scribe US

Refugee Crisis

• Overview of the Rohingya Crisis
  More than 700,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh, creating one of the largest refugee crises in the world.

  • Current Population: Over 1 million Rohingya now reside in camps on the Cox's Bazar peninsula. This immense influx has put significant strain on local resources and facilities, often leading to dire living conditions.

• Challenges Faced by Bangladesh
  Bangladesh is not equipped to sustain such a large population of refugees.

  • Infrastructure: The country's infrastructure is overwhelmed. There is a shortage of basic necessities like food, water, and healthcare services. Long-term solutions are needed to handle the situation adequately.

• Role of International Organizations
  The United Nations and various nonprofit groups are working to assist but are unable to meet the overwhelming demand.

  • Capacity Issues: The resources available are insufficient to meet the basic needs of the refugee population, highlighting the need for increased international support and aid.

• Dilemma of Refugees
  The refugees are caught in a precarious situation where returning to Myanmar is not an option, yet Bangladesh does not have the means or willingness to permanently accommodate them.

  • Forced Displacement: This scenario exemplifies the complexities of refugee situations, where geopolitical factors and local capabilities intersect.

• Recent Developments

  • March 2018: Issues surrounding social media's impact, specifically Facebook's role in inciting violence in Myanmar and leading to the crisis.
  • Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) : Ongoing projects aimed at improving conditions for the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, although challenges persist.

Additional Observations

• The crisis reflects a larger issue of global refugee movements and the responsibilities of nations to provide humanitarian aid.
• Long-term strategies need to be developed to address both those displaced and the host communities.
• Global awareness and advocacy are crucial to ensuring the protection and rights of the Rohingya people are respected.

Note on Recent Events in Myanmar

• March 2018: UN Report on Facebook's Role in Rohingya Genocide

  • The UN highlighted that Facebook facilitated the spread of hate speech during the Rohingya crisis. This emphasizes the responsibility of social media platforms in moderating content, especially in sensitive regions.

• December 2019: Hague Statement by Aung San Suu Kyi

  • Aung San Suu Kyi remarked, "If war crimes have been committed, they will be prosecuted within our military justice system."
  • This statement reflects the challenges of accountability within Myanmar's military framework and raises concerns about the integrity of military courts.

• UN Fact-Finding Mission Report

  • The report detailed horrific abuses by the military, including systematic killings, rape, and severe bodily harm to women and girls.
  • Such revelations underscore the urgent need for international intervention and support for humanitarian efforts in Myanmar.

• February 1, 2021: Military Coup

  • The military took control following a general election, leading to widespread protests.
  • The coup marked a significant regression in Myanmar's political landscape, raising questions about democratic processes.

• Ongoing Civil War

  • The country has descended into a state of civil unrest, leading to continuous violence and instability.
  • This situation calls for a global response to aid the affected populations and address the human rights violations ongoing in Myanmar.

Date	Event
March 2018	UN reported Facebook's role in hate speech
December 2019	Aung San Suu Kyi's comments on war crimes
February 1, 2021	Military coup and control over Myanmar
Ongoing	Continued civil war and humanitarian crisis

Extended readings:

www.amnesty.org

Myanmar: Facebook's systems promoted violence against Rohingya

systemicjustice.org

How Facebook contributed to genocide in Myanmar and why it will ...

carnegieendowment.org

Facebook, Telegram, and the Ongoing Struggle Against Online Hate ...

South Caucuses

• One of the world's oldest civilizations

  • The region has a rich history and has influenced many cultures and societies throughout its existence. Its historical significance makes it essential for understanding the development of early human societies.

• Often known as "Greater Armenia"

  • This term reflects the historical and cultural expanse of the Armenian nation, which historically included more territories than present-day Armenia.

• Existed at the crossroads of powerful civilizations

  • The location of the South Caucuses made it a strategic point for trade and military conquests between major empires such as Ancient Babylon and the Soviet Union. This strategic importance continues to shape regional politics.

• The Armenians in the Karabakh have been there...forever

  • The continuous presence of Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is a crucial aspect of the ongoing conflict over this territory. Their historical roots contribute to national identity and claims to the land.

• By 1900, Armenians lived throughout the South Caucuses and Asia Minor

  • The dispersion of the Armenian community due to conflicts with Turks, Kurds, and others illustrates the complex demographic changes and tensions in the region over time.

• Armenians are overwhelmingly Eastern Orthodox Christians

  • This religious affiliation has cultural implications and has influenced Armenia's historical alliances, particularly with Russia, which shares a similar religious background.

• Armenian Apostolic Church historically supported by Russia

  • The relationship between the church and Russia highlights the intertwining of religion and politics, where religious groups often play roles in national and international relations.

• Second class citizens in the Empire

  • This status underscores the discrimination faced by Armenians within the Ottoman Empire, highlighting the socio-political hierarchy and its impact on national consciousness.

• Nationalism and separatism peaked with Ottoman decline

  • As the Ottoman Empire weakened, various ethnic groups, including Armenians, sought greater autonomy or independence, which contributed to regional instability.

• Series of violent clashes between the Armenians and the Ottomans

  • These conflicts led to significant loss of life and further entrenched animosities, setting the stage for later atrocities during the Armenian Genocide in 1915.

• In 1914, Russia brokered a deal for the "Armenian Question"

  • This diplomatic effort reflects the international dimensions of the Armenian plight and the involvement of great powers in local issues. It underscores how geopolitical interests often overshadow local realities.

• But then World War I begins

  • The onset of World War I reshaped alliances and conflicts in the region, redirecting focus and resources away from the Armenian struggle, which would have lasting consequences for its population.

Extended readings:

academic.oup.com

The South Caucasus: The Breakdown of the Soviet Empire

www.britannica.com

Armenia - Caucasus, Soviet Union, Genocide - Britannica

www.mfa.gov.tr

The Events of 1915 and the Turkish-Armenian Controversy over ...

World War I (and a Genocide)

• Ottoman Empire's Entry into WWI

  • The Ottoman Empire joined World War I as a Central Power, impacting the geopolitical landscape and leading to significant internal strife.
  • The surprise attack on Russia on October 29, 1914, marked the empire's entry into the conflict, intensifying existing tensions.

• Exacerbation of Armenian-Turkish Tensions

  • The internal dynamics within the Ottoman Empire grew increasingly hostile towards the Armenian population, exacerbated by the war.
  • The Armenian community had historically faced discrimination and pressures, which escalated under the threat of war.

• Imprisonment and Murder of Armenian Leaders (April 24, 1915)

  • On this date, Armenian leaders were systematically imprisoned, tortured, and killed, with approximately 200,000 dead by July 1915.
  • This act aimed to render the Armenian community leaderless and prevent organized resistance.

• Government Laws for Deportation and Expropriation

  • Laws were enacted that allowed for the deportation of Armenians and seizure of their properties.
  • Populations received little time to settle their affairs before facing forced relocation.

• Destruction of Armenian Cultural Heritage

  • Many Armenian monuments, churches, and communities were destroyed systematically, indicating an effort to erase Armenian presence and culture.

• Mass Marches to the Syrian Desert

  • Surviving Armenians were forcibly marched to the Syrian desert, exposing them to further violence and hardship.
  • Kurdish units and ex-convicts were employed against Armenians, complicating the situation and creating a façade of deniability for the Ottoman authorities.

• Extermination of Armenians by 1917

  • By 1917, it was estimated that 50-67% of the Ottoman Armenian population had been exterminated.
  • Remaining survivors often retaliated against civilian Turkish populations, highlighting the spiral of violence and revenge.

• President Woodrow Wilson's Post-War Involvement

  • After the war, U.S. President Woodrow Wilson oversaw the drawing of Armenia's boundaries, reflecting international interest in the fate of Armenians.
  • Despite some provinces being retaken by Turkey, significant portions became part of the newly created Armenian Republic.

Table of Key Events and Outcomes

Event	Date	Outcomes/Consequences
Entry of Ottoman Empire into WWI	Oct 29, 1914	Intensified tensions within the empire
Armenian leaders imprisoned/murdered	Apr 24, 1915	200,000 deaths by July 1915
Passage of deportation laws	1915	Forced relocations, property confiscations
March to Syrian desert	1915-1917	High mortality, cultural destruction
Extermination of Ottoman Armenians	By 1917	Loss of 50-67% of the population
Post-war boundary drawing	After WWI	Creation of the Republic of Armenia

• Republic of Armenia Creation
  • The Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic (1920-1922) was established, later becoming part of the USSR until 1991, highlighting the complex historical evolution of Armenian governance in the region.

Extended readings:

encyclopedia.ushmm.org

The Armenian Genocide (1915-16): Overview

www.armenian-genocide.org

Wilson, Woodrow, and the Armenian Genocide

www.mfa.gov.tr

[PDF] the armenian “genocide”?

Fall of the USSR Notes

• Voting for Independence:

  • The UNION REPUBLICS (e.g., Ukraine) had the right to vote for independence, while the Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republics (like Crimea and Chechnya) did not.
  • This distinction shows how governance and political rights were structured within the Soviet Union, favoring larger republics over smaller autonomous regions.

• Nagorno-Karabakh's Status:

  • Nagorno-Karabakh was assigned to Azerbaijan despite being predominantly Armenian.
  • The historical context as an ancient Armenian region complicates its current governance and has led to significant ethnic tensions.

• Nagorno-Karabakh War:

  • The conflict began in 1988 when Nagorno-Karabakh voted to unite with Armenia, escalating into a war that lasted until 1994.
  • This highlights issues of self-determination and national identity, particularly in multi-ethnic regions.

• Ethnic Cleansing and Displacement:

  • The war is characterized by themes of ethnic cleansing and mass displacement, which are critical to understanding the humanitarian impacts of the conflict.
  • This aspect underscores the need for international awareness and intervention in such conflicts.

• Russian Mediation:

  • In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire, but a formal peace treaty was never signed.
  • This leaves a legal and political limbo in the region, affecting stability and governance.

• De Facto Autonomous Status:

  • Despite not being recognized internationally, Nagorno-Karabakh functioned as a de facto autonomous political unit.
  • This situation illustrates the complexities of post-Soviet territories where borders and governance remain disputed.

• Implications for Future Relations:

  • The unresolved status and historical grievances between Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to affect regional stability and international relations.
  • Future negotiations may be hindered by the legacy of the war and the ongoing tensions over territorial claims.

Extended readings:

www.cfr.org

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | Global Conflict Tracker

www.fpri.org

A "Frozen Conflict" Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and ...

www.usip.org

Nagorno-Karabakh: Searching for a Solution

Republic of Artsakh

• Referendum of 2006
  • The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic held a referendum with a turnout of 87.2% and an approval rating of 98.6%.
  • This vote declared the Republic of Artsakh as a "sovereign, democratic state," highlighting the region's intent for independence.
• Political Structure
  • Artsakh is established as a presidential democracy with a unicameral legislature.
  • This suggests a centralized executive power, where the president plays a key role in governance.
• Military Oversight
  • The army operates under civilian control, indicating a democratic principle of military oversight to prevent military domination in governance.
  • Most military supplies, including tanks and personnel, were sourced from Armenia, which underscores the close military cooperation between the two.
• Lack of External Recognition
  • There is no external recognition of Artsakh's independence, not even from Armenia, which complicates its international standing and diplomatic relations.
• Regional Politics
  • Russia's Role
    • Historically supports Armenia and by extension, Artsakh, while maintaining a strong alliance with Azerbaijan. This duality can create tension in regional stability.
  • Turkey's Position
    • Turkey's support for Azerbaijan juxtaposed with its membership in NATO presents a complex relationship, particularly with Armenia, which views Turkey with hostility due to historical grievances.
  • Armenia and Iran
    • Armenia and Iran have developed a cooperative relationship, indicating shared strategic interests in the region.
  • Azerbaijan's Strategy
    • Azerbaijan attempts to mediate relationships between the US and Russia, which signifies its strategic importance in geopolitics and balancing influences.

This information enhances understanding of the political and military dynamics in the region, especially concerning the aspirations and challenges faced by the Republic of Artsakh amidst tense relations with Azerbaijan and the influence of external powers such as Russia and Turkey.

Extended readings:

uca.edu

46. Azerbaijan/Nagorno-Karabakh (1991-present)

apps.dtic.mil

[PDF] INTRACTABILITY AND MEDIATION OF THE NAGORNO ... - DTIC

www.marines.mil

[PDF] Federal Research Division Country Profile: Russia, October 2006

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

• Conflict Background

  • In 2020, the long-standing conflict between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh escalated significantly.
    • This context is crucial as the region has historically been a point of contention, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan claiming rights to the territory.

• Ceasefire Negotiation

  • After 44 days of intense fighting, Russia negotiated a ceasefire.
    • This points to Russia's influential role in the geopolitics of the region, as it traditionally has a vested interest in maintaining stability in former Soviet republics.

• Key Aspects of the Ceasefire

  • Exchange of POWs and the Dead
    • Engaging in the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) reflects attempts to bring closure to families and is critical for peace-building.
  • Withdrawal of Armenian Forces
    • The withdrawal signifies a tactical retreat, which may have implications for Armenia's national pride and security.
  • Russian Peacekeepers
    • The deployment of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers along the Lachin corridor for 5 years highlights international involvement in maintaining peace and security in the region.

• Legitimacy Crisis in Armenia (2020-2021)

  • During this period, the Armenian Prime Minister faced accusations of betrayal regarding the handling of the conflict.
    • This crisis may have led to political instability and public dissatisfaction within Armenia, affecting governance and national unity.

• Additional Clashes in 2022

  • Further military clashes occurred between Armenia and Azerbaijan, indicating ongoing tension and unresolved disputes despite the ceasefire.
    • This suggests that the peace established in 2020 was tenuous and highlights the challenges of achieving lasting resolutions in regional conflicts.

• Azerbaijan's Strategic Gains

  • Azerbaijan took control of several strategic positions during these clashes, which could have significant implications for military strategy and future negotiations between the two countries.
    • Control of these areas might enhance Azerbaijan's leverage in any potential peace discussions moving forward.

Extended readings:

www.cfr.org

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | Global Conflict Tracker

www.fpri.org

A "Frozen Conflict" Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and ...

en.wikipedia.org

Second Nagorno-Karabakh War - Wikipedia

The Third Nagorno-Karabakh War

• September 19, 2023 Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour assault on Artsakh using weapons obtained from Turkey

  • This reflects the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, with Azerbaijan strengthening its military capabilities through foreign partnerships, particularly with Turkey.

• Artsakh was immediately overwhelmed and surrendered

  • The rapid surrender indicates a significant imbalance in military capabilities and raises questions about the preparedness of Artsakh's forces in facing such an unexpected attack.

• Russia again brokered the ceasefires

  • Russia's role as a broker is critical in this conflict. Historically, it has been involved in mediating between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but its effectiveness and neutrality have been questioned.

• Artsakh agreed to disband its armed forces

  • This decision signifies the end of any organized armed resistance from Artsakh, potentially leading to further instability in the region.

• Over 100,000 civilians fled to Armenia by the end of September 2023 (99% of the population)

  • The mass exodus highlights the humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict and underscores the need for international assistance and support for displaced individuals.

• Azerbaijan took full control of the region and has begun repopulation efforts

  • This step suggests Azerbaijan’s plans to establish a permanent presence in the area, which may lead to demographic changes and further tensions with the local Armenian population.

• The government of Artsakh has announced that the de facto "country" no longer existed and all formal bodies would be disbanded by the end of the year

  • The dissolution of governmental structures reflects the permanent shift in control and raises concerns about the rights and protections of remaining residents.

• The residents could (try to) leave or stay under the direct rule of Azerbaijan

  • This creates a complex and often dangerous choice for individuals, with implications for their safety and rights.

• Borders are now being renegotiated

  • The renegotiation of borders is typical in the aftermath of conflict and could lead to new agreements or escalations if not handled carefully.

• BOTH US AND Russian peacekeepers???

  • The involvement of both US and Russian peacekeepers could complicate the peacekeeping process, given their differing interests in the region. The effectiveness of such a force will depend on their cooperation and mandates.

Extended readings:

www.cfr.org

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | Global Conflict Tracker

www.crisisgroup.org

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer - Crisis Group

www.csis.org

A Renewed Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: Reading Between the Front ...