New Notebook

The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

• Conflict Background

  • In 2020, the long-standing conflict between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh escalated significantly.
    • This context is crucial as the region has historically been a point of contention, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan claiming rights to the territory.

• Ceasefire Negotiation

  • After 44 days of intense fighting, Russia negotiated a ceasefire.
    • This points to Russia's influential role in the geopolitics of the region, as it traditionally has a vested interest in maintaining stability in former Soviet republics.

• Key Aspects of the Ceasefire

  • Exchange of POWs and the Dead
    • Engaging in the exchange of prisoners of war (POWs) reflects attempts to bring closure to families and is critical for peace-building.
  • Withdrawal of Armenian Forces
    • The withdrawal signifies a tactical retreat, which may have implications for Armenia's national pride and security.
  • Russian Peacekeepers
    • The deployment of 2,000 Russian peacekeepers along the Lachin corridor for 5 years highlights international involvement in maintaining peace and security in the region.

• Legitimacy Crisis in Armenia (2020-2021)

  • During this period, the Armenian Prime Minister faced accusations of betrayal regarding the handling of the conflict.
    • This crisis may have led to political instability and public dissatisfaction within Armenia, affecting governance and national unity.

• Additional Clashes in 2022

  • Further military clashes occurred between Armenia and Azerbaijan, indicating ongoing tension and unresolved disputes despite the ceasefire.
    • This suggests that the peace established in 2020 was tenuous and highlights the challenges of achieving lasting resolutions in regional conflicts.

• Azerbaijan's Strategic Gains

  • Azerbaijan took control of several strategic positions during these clashes, which could have significant implications for military strategy and future negotiations between the two countries.
    • Control of these areas might enhance Azerbaijan's leverage in any potential peace discussions moving forward.

Extended readings:

The Third Nagorno-Karabakh War

• September 19, 2023 Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour assault on Artsakh using weapons obtained from Turkey

  • This reflects the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region, with Azerbaijan strengthening its military capabilities through foreign partnerships, particularly with Turkey.

• Artsakh was immediately overwhelmed and surrendered

  • The rapid surrender indicates a significant imbalance in military capabilities and raises questions about the preparedness of Artsakh's forces in facing such an unexpected attack.

• Russia again brokered the ceasefires

  • Russia's role as a broker is critical in this conflict. Historically, it has been involved in mediating between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but its effectiveness and neutrality have been questioned.

• Artsakh agreed to disband its armed forces

  • This decision signifies the end of any organized armed resistance from Artsakh, potentially leading to further instability in the region.

• Over 100,000 civilians fled to Armenia by the end of September 2023 (99% of the population)

  • The mass exodus highlights the humanitarian crisis resulting from the conflict and underscores the need for international assistance and support for displaced individuals.

• Azerbaijan took full control of the region and has begun repopulation efforts

  • This step suggests Azerbaijan’s plans to establish a permanent presence in the area, which may lead to demographic changes and further tensions with the local Armenian population.

• The government of Artsakh has announced that the de facto "country" no longer existed and all formal bodies would be disbanded by the end of the year

  • The dissolution of governmental structures reflects the permanent shift in control and raises concerns about the rights and protections of remaining residents.

• The residents could (try to) leave or stay under the direct rule of Azerbaijan

  • This creates a complex and often dangerous choice for individuals, with implications for their safety and rights.

• Borders are now being renegotiated

  • The renegotiation of borders is typical in the aftermath of conflict and could lead to new agreements or escalations if not handled carefully.

• BOTH US AND Russian peacekeepers???

  • The involvement of both US and Russian peacekeepers could complicate the peacekeeping process, given their differing interests in the region. The effectiveness of such a force will depend on their cooperation and mandates.

Extended readings: